Live Your Life the Way You Want to Trade

A major problem I encounter among professionals is that they pursue business through busy-ness.  They equate doing more and getting items off their to-do lists with being productive.  In the recent Forbes article, I provide an alternate perspective:  one in which unstructured time can be the most productive time of day.Here is an important principle… Read More

Imagination Sets In

One of my constant themes over the past few years is the underfunding of state and local pension plans. Illinois is particularly bad, but let's look at some aggregate data.The National Association of State Retirement Administrators (NASRA) provides this grim-looking annual picture.Annual UpdateBetween the end of 2007 and end of 2014, pension plan assets rose… Read More

Fed’s Vice Chair Fischer: “When the case is overwhelming, if you wait that long, then you’ve waited too long.”

Note: Tomorrow, Saturday, at 12:25 PM ET, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer will speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium on "U.S. Inflation Developments"A couple of quotes from earlier today ...From Binyamin Appelbaum at the NY Times: Fed Official Fischer Leaves Door Open for September Rate IncreaseMr. Fischer said the Fed was preparing to raise interest… Read More

Personal Income increased 0.4% in July, Spending increased 0.3%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for July: Personal income increased $ 67.1 billion, or 0.4 percent ... in July, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $ 37.4 billion, or 0.3 percent....Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.2 percent in July… Read More

Steve Keen on Economic Forecasts, Ponzi Schemes, GDP, China; One Way Streets and Poison

Economic ForecastsEconomist Steve Keen pinged me in response to my post Regional Manufacturing Expectations From Mars.In that post, I compared Richmond Fed manufacturing survey expectations (six month look ahead projections made in February for August), to what actually happened in August.In response, Steve Keen Tweeted @MishGEA gets it wrong! Says "Regional Manufacturing Expectations From Mars"… Read More

Friday: July Personal Income and Outlays, Consumer Sentiment

A couple of excerpts from a Merrill Lynch research note, first on the possibility of a September rate hike, and second their forecast for August NFP: Markets are now pricing a fairly slim chance that the Fed will hike in September, taking to heart the remarks by New York Fed President Bill Dudley midweek that… Read More

Oil Trading Alert: One-day Rebound or Something More?

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $ 45.32 and profit-take order at $ 35.72 are justified from the risk/reward perspective. Recent Commentaries | Safehaven.com… Read More

Why Are ‘Bank Holidays’ Always Announced on Sunday?

On Sunday, June 29, the Associated Press ran the following headline: "Greek Banks will not open Monday." After a lengthy cabinet session, it was decided that Greek banks would remain closed for 6 working days, along with restrictions ... Recent Commentaries | Safehaven.com… Read More

Second Quarter GDP Revised Up, as Expected, Led by Autos, Housing

Economists had been expecting today's second quarter GDP estimate to rise from initial readings, based largely on auto sales and housing, and they were correct. "The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the 'advance' estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real… Read More

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