Update: The Inland Empire Bust and Recovery

Way back in 2006 I disagreed with some analysts on the outlook for the Inland Empire in California. I wrote: As the housing bubble unwinds, housing related employment will fall; and fall dramatically in areas like the Inland Empire. The more an area is dependent on housing, the larger the negative impact on the local… Read More..

Trade Deficit Increased in December to $43.4 Billion

Earlier the Department of Commerce reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $ 43.4 billion in December, up $ 1.1 billion from $ 42.2 billion in November, revised. December exports were $ 181.5 billion, $ 0.5 billion… Read More

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of February 7, 2016• Update: "Scariest jobs chart ever"Monday:• At 10:00 AM ET, the Fed will release the monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI).From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures are up 3 and DOW futures are up 15 (fair value).Oil prices were down over the last week… Read More

How To Trade With Macro Winds To Your Back

What does it mean to have the wind to your back as a trader?Many would respond in terms of trend behavior.  You have the wind at your back, many believe, if you are trading in the direction of the trend.  A different way of viewing wind at your back is aligning yourself with the behavior of… Read More

Update: “Scariest jobs chart ever”

During and following the 2007 recession, every month I posted a graph showing the percent jobs lost during the recession compared to previous post-WWII recessions.Some people started calling this the "scariest jobs chart ever".I retired the graph in May 2014 when employment finally exceeded the pre-recession peak.I was asked if I could post an update… Read More

Schedule for Week of February 7, 2016

The key economic report this week is January retail sales on Friday.The focus will be on Fed Chair Janet Yellen's Semiannual Monetary Policy testimony to the Congress.----- Monday, February 8th -----10:00 AM ET: The Fed will release the monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI). ----- Tuesday, February 9th -----9:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism… Read More

Technical Market Report for February 6, 2016

There were alarming numbers of new lows on Wednesday and Friday last week and the secondaries fell to new cycle lows. I expect the major averages to be lower on Friday February 12 than they were on Friday February 5. Recent Commentaries | Safehaven.com… Read More

Trading Performance: Getting To That Next Level

I recently spoke with the traders at SMB and shared a few best practices that had benefited my trading over the past several months.  The idea is not that any traders should mimic my trading; rather, traders need to learn from their successes, identify what they are doing well, and then become more consistent in… Read More

Comments: A Solid Employment Report

My initial reaction was this was a "decent" employment report. However, with some further analysis, I think this should be characterized as a "solid" report.The unemployment rate declined to 4.9% even as the participation rate increased (a strong household survey). Sure the headline number was below the consensus forecast, but this follows several months of… Read More

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