Dangerous Games of Chicken

It's difficult to imagine more challenging analysis. The global nature of the current Credit Bubble creates dynamics and complexities dissimilar to previous Bubble cycles. There are extraordinary uncertainties ... Recent Commentaries | Safehaven.com… Read More

Comment on Q4 GDP and Investment: R-E-L-A-X

There are legitimate concerns about a strong dollar, and weak economic activity overseas, impacting U.S. exports and GDP growth. However, overall, the Q4 GDP report was solid.The key numbers are: 1) PCE increased at a 4.3% annual rate in Q4 (the two month method nails it again), and 2) private fixed investment increased at a… Read More

Restaurant Performance Index shows Expansion in December

I think restaurants are happy with lower gasoline prices (except, I hear, McDonald's) ...Here is a minor indicator I follow from the National Restaurant Association: Restaurant Performance Index Finished the Year on a Positive NoteDriven by positive sales and traffic and an uptick in capital expenditures, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) finished… Read More

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in December

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined in December to 1.88%, down from 1.91% in November. Freddie's rate is down from 2.39% in December 2013, and the rate in December was the lowest level since December 2008. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. These are mortgage loans that… Read More

Final January Consumer Sentiment at 98.1

Click on graph for larger image.The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for January was at 98.1, down slightly from the preliminary estimate of 98.2, and up from 93.6 in December.This was close to the consensus forecast of 98.2. Lower gasoline prices and a better labor market are probably the reasons for the recent… Read More

Best Practices in Trading: Building a Learning Network Via Social Media

One of the greatest psychological challenges of trading is a cognitive, not an emotional, one.  It is the challenge of bandwidth:  our limitations in processing large amounts of information at any given time.  Many portfolio managers I've worked with have developed ways of expanding their bandwidth, including building out teams to help with research and… Read More

A Different Way of Tracking Stock Market Strength With Technical Indicators

Suppose we think of technical indicators as measures of strength and weakness, with each giving buy and sell signals based upon different time frames and definitions of strength.  One way to assess the overall strength of the stock market would be to track, over time, how many shares are giving buy and sell signals across… Read More

Best Practices in Trading: Finding and Focusing on Your Trading Edge

Two kinds of traders fail to find success:  those who cannot change and adapt and those who cannot focus and exploit their edges in markets.  Very often traders become frustrated with losses and abandon what they are doing, seeking ever better ideas and methods.  This makes it very difficult to ever master any particular opportunity… Read More

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 46 states in December

From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for December 2014. In the past month, the indexes increased in 46 states and remained stable in four, for a one-month diffusion index of 94. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 50 states… Read More