Regional Fed Manufacturing Surveys for May and the ISM Index

Earlier today the last two regional Fed surveys for May were released. As expected, the Dallas Fed was especially weak due primarily to weakness in the oil sector.From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Contracts FurtherTexas factory activity declined again in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. ... The… Read More

New Views for a Short Market Week

*  In one branch of my analytic work, I break the market down into five factors that potentially drive near-term returns: momentum, breadth, sentiment, correlation, and volatility.  The above regression model is derived from 2013 - present data and predicts next five-day returns in SPY.  Interestingly, volatility and momentum have been the significant drivers of… Read More

Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in March

The expected slowdown in year-over-year price increases has occurred. In October 2013, the National index was up 10.9% year-over-year (YoY). In March 2015, the index was up 4.1% YoY.  However the YoY change has only declined slightly over the last six months.As I've noted before, I think most of the slowdown on a YoY basis… Read More

Comments on New Home Sales

The new home sales report for April was above expectations at 517 thousand on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Earlier: New Home Sales increased to 517,000 Annual Rate in AprilThe Census Bureau reported that new home sales this year, through April, were 179,000, Not seasonally adjusted (NSA). That is up 23.7% from 145,000… Read More

Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices, Durable Goods and More

From Bloomberg: What Would Happen If Greece Doesn’t Pay the IMF: Q&AQ: What will the IMF do?A: A missed payment date starts the clock ticking. Two weeks after the initial due date and a cable from Washington urging immediate payment, the fund sends another cable stressing the “seriousness of the failure to meet obligations” and… Read More

Polish Voters Elect Eurosceptic President; Disenchantment with Brussels Spreads

Andrzej Duda outed president Bronisław Komorowski, the pro-Brussels incumbent centrist Civic Platform party president, in an election over the weekend. Komorowski was expected to win. The Duda Victory Sent Shockwaves Through Polish Politics, and no doubt Brussels as well. The win for the socially conservative, nationalist, eurosceptic party, which saw Mr Duda oust Bronisław Komorowski… Read More

Gasoline Prices: Down a Dollar from last year on Memorial Day

According to Gasbuddy.com (see graph at bottom), gasoline prices are down to a national average of $ 2.75 per gallon. One year ago for the week of Memorial Day, prices were at $ 3.75 per gallon, and for the same week two years ago prices were $ 3.70 per gallon.Ten years ago, price were at $… Read More

Three Steps In Overcoming Trading Fears

Many situations can be interpreted as threats.  That leads to an anxiety response and an activation of the body's fight-or-flight stress response.  Once we perceive something as a threat, we can either run from it or we can face it.  Facing a fear does not necessarily mean fighting or fleeing.  Sometimes facing a fear means… Read More