Elliott Wave Analysis On USDJPY And SP500

USDJPY is making a sharp leg up today from 122.25 so we see decline from 123.75 in three legs, thus a corrective move that is part of a bigger complex pattern. We still like a triangle idea in wave four, so current recovery represents wave d) ... Recent Commentaries | Safehaven.com… Read More

Comments on October New Home Sales

The new home sales report for October was slightly below expectations, however sales for July, August and September were revised down. Sales were up 4.9% year-over-year in October (SA).Earlier: New Home Sales increased to 495,000 Annual Rate in October.Even though the October report was somewhat disappointing, sales are still up solidly year-to-date.  The Census Bureau… Read More

Personal Income increased 0.4% in October, Spending increased 0.1%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for October: Personal income increased $ 68.1 billion, or 0.4 percent ... in October, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $ 15.2 billion, or 0.1 percent....Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.1 percent in October… Read More

Richmond Fed Region Negative Again; Inventories Suggest Outright Disaster on Horizon

Economists expected manufacturing activity in the Richmond Fed region would bounce into positive territory this month.The Bloomberg Econoday Consensus Estimate was +1 in a range of 0-4, but the reading of -3 came in below any economist's estimate. Early indications for the November factory sector are soft right now after Richmond Fed reports a much… Read More

Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in September

Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.9% year-over-year in SeptemberThe year-over-year increase in prices is mostly moving sideways now at between 4% and 5%.   In October 2013, the National index was up 10.9% year-over-year (YoY). In September 2015, the index was up 4.9% YoY.Here is the YoY… Read More

Tuesday: GDP, Case-Shiller House Prices

A couple of people were too kind today:From Paul Krugman: Shorts SubjectLast night I was invited to a screening of The Big Short, which I thought was terrific; who knew that CDOs and credit default swaps could be made into an edge-of-your-seat narrative (with great acting)?I'm looking forward to seeing the movie.And from Joseph Weisenthal… Read More

How To Fail Successfully

If you're going to be a skillful sailor, you have to weather some storms.  We build and expand skills by testing them, and that means that failure is an essential ingredient of success.  It's the weight that we lift for one set of repetitions but not three that we should be tackling in the gym. … Read More

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