August Employment Revisions

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August Employment Revisions

by Bill McBride on 9/04/2017 11:13:00 AM

Last week, in my employment preview, I noted “My sense (mostly based on history) is that job gains will be below consensus in August.” Sure enough.

Here is a table of revisions for August since 2005.  Note that most of the revisions have been up.   This doesn’t mean that the August 2017 revision will be up, but it does seem likely.   I’m not sure why the BLS has underestimated job growth in August (possibly because of the timing of seasonal teacher hiring and the end of the summer jobs).

August Employment Report (000s)
Year Initial Revised Revision
2005 169 196 +27
2006 128 183 55
2007 -4 -20 -16
2008 -84 -267 -183
2009 -216 -213 3
2010 -54 -36 18
2011 0 110 110
2012 96 177 81
2013 169 261 92
2014 142 230 88
2015 173 157 -16
2016 151 176 25
2016 156


Note: In 2008, the BLS significantly under reported job losses. That wasn’t surprising since the initial models the BLS used missed turning points (something I wrote about in 2007). The BLS has since improved this model.

 

Published at Mon, 04 Sep 2017 15:13:00 +0000

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