All posts in "Real Estate"

FNC: Residential Property Values increased 6.0% year-over-year in September

home-1353389_1280by image4you from pixabay

FNC: Residential Property Values increased 6.0% year-over-year in September

by Bill McBride on 11/15/2016 05:20:00 PM

 In addition to Case-Shiller, and CoreLogic, I’m also watching the FNC, Zillow and several other house price indexes.

FNC released their September 2016 index data.  FNC reported that their Residential Price Index™ (RPI) indicates that U.S. residential property values increased 0.4% from August to September (Composite 100 index, not seasonally adjusted).

The 10 city MSA increased 0.4% (NSA), the 20-MSA RPI increased 0.5%, and the 30-MSA RPI also increased 0.5% in September. These indexes are not seasonally adjusted (NSA), and are for non-distressed home sales (excluding foreclosure auction sales, REO sales, and short sales).

Notes: In addition to the composite indexes, FNC presents price indexes for 30 MSAs. FNC also provides seasonally adjusted data.

The index is still down 9.2% from the peak in 2006 (not inflation adjusted).

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change based on the FNC index (four composites) through September 2016. The FNC indexes are hedonic price indexes using a blend of sold homes and real-time appraisals.

Most of the other indexes are also showing the year-over-year change in the mid single digit range.

Note: The September Case-Shiller index will be released on Tuesday, November 29th.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/11/fnc-residential-property-values.html#Wjjzl1U721Afgjeq.99

by Bill McBride on 11/15/2016 05:20:00 PM
Published at Tue, 15 Nov 2016 22:20:00 +0000

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Mortgage Rates and Ten Year Yield, Expect 4% Mortgage Rates

abode-987096_1280
abode-987096_1280By Merio from Pixabay

Mortgage Rates and Ten Year Yield, Expect 4% Mortgage Rates

by Bill McBride on 11/14/2016 11:03:00 AM

Rates are rising with the expectation of much larger deficits next year (tax cuts combined with more spending).
With the ten year yield rising to 2.25% today, and based on an historical relationship, 30-year rates should currently be around 4.1%.

As of this morning, Mortgage News Daily reports that 30 year fixed rate mortgages are around 4%. Pretty close to expected.

The graph shows the relationship between the monthly 10 year Treasury Yield and 30 year mortgage rates from the Freddie Mac survey.

Mortgage rates and 10 year Treasury Yield

Currently the 10 year Treasury yield is at 2.25%, and 30 year mortgage rates were at 3.57% according to the Freddie Mac survey last week.

So expect mortgage rates to rise this week to around 4%.

Also, we should see a sharp drop in refinance activity.

Currently I don’t think this increase in rates will have a significant impact on the housing market.

by Bill McBride on 11/14/2016 11:03:00 AM

Stock market, trading journal, daily journal, investing journal

My Trading Journal: 30 Day Trading Journal

Published at Mon, 14 Nov 2016 16:03:00 +0000

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Thursday: Unemployment Claims

digital-marketing-1433427_1280

by WDnetStudio at pixabay

Thursday: Unemployment Claims

 

by Bill McBride on 11/09/2016 07:16:00 PM

 From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Worst Day For Mortgage Rates in Over 3 Years

Mortgage Rates skyrocketed today, relative to their average range of movement. It was the single biggest move higher since the days of the taper tantrum in mid-2013. Virtually all lenders are quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates that are at least an eighth of a point higher versus yesterday. Over the past decade, you can count single-day eighth-point moves without using any toes. Some lenders were a quarter point higher, which has only happened a few times, ever.
emphasis added

Thursday:
• 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 263 thousand initial claims, down from 265 thousand the previous week.

by Bill McBride on 11/09/2016 07:16:00 PM

Stock market, trading journal, daily journal, investing journal

My Trading Journal: 30 Day Trading Journal

Published at Thu, 10 Nov 2016 00:16:00 +0000

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Black Knight September Mortgage Monitor

3jkl6i.jpg

Black Knight September Mortgage Monitor

by Bill McBride on 11/07/2016 08:29:00 AM

 Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for September today. According to BKFS, 4.27% of mortgages were delinquent in September, down from 4.87% in September 2015. BKFS also reported that 1.00% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 1.46% a year ago.

This gives a total of 5.27% delinquent or in foreclosure.

Press Release: Black Knight’s Mortgage Monitor: ‘Balancing Act’ of Low Rates, Rising Home Prices is Keeping Affordability Stable for Now; Raising Conforming Loan Limits Could Increase Origination Volumes

Today, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services, Inc. released its latest Mortgage Monitor Report, based on data as of the end of September 2016. This month, in light of 52 consecutive months of annual home price appreciation (HPA) and discussion in many quarters around the possibility of raising conforming loan limits, Black Knight took a closer look at HPA trends, home affordability and the impact that raising those limits might have on mortgage originations. …

“The Housing and Economic Recovery Act (HERA) of 2008 restricted any additional increases in the conforming loan limit until national home values returned to pre-crisis levels. Now that we’ve reached that point by multiple measures, the GSEs can consider raising the national conforming limit above the static $417,000 where it has stayed for the last 10 years – aside from the 234 designated ‘high-cost’ counties, of course. Our analysis shows that there are approximately 17 times as many originations – roughly 100,000 in total over the past 12 months – right at the conforming limit compared to preceding dollar amount buckets, and that originations drop off by about 70 percent immediately above the limit. In addition, the data shows that a GSE loan originated right at the conforming limit is nine times more likely to carry a second lien than one that is not. One example scenario shows that, with all else being equal, raising the conforming loan limit by $10,000 could result in a one percent increase in originations – approximately 40,000 new loans and $20 billion in new loan balances.”
emphasis added

 

BKFSClick on graph for larger image.

This graph from Black Knight shows the Black Knight HPI.

From Black Knight:

• As of August, we’ve seen 52 consecutive months of year-over-year home price appreciation (HPA)

• The national level HPI is now $266K, the highest median home value seen since 2006 and just 0.7 percent off of the June 2006 peak of $268K

• Annual HPA was 5.3 percent in August, and has remained relatively stable in that range over the last 12 months

• The current rate of annual HPA is above the 19921996 average growth of 2.8 percent, but well below what was seen from 19982005

• Housing supply remains low by historical standards; as of August, there was a 4.6-month supply of homes for sale, down from 5.5, 5.5 and 5.2 months the last three years

Even though nominal prices are close to the previous high in the Black Knight index, real prices (adjusted for inflation) are still around 20% below the price peak in June 2006.

There is much more in the mortgage monitor.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/11/black-knight-september-mortgage-monitor.html#iP2rWzRDlLE2O6ul.99

by Bill McBride on 11/07/2016 08:29:00 AM

Stock market, trading journal, daily journal, investing journal

My Trading Journal: 30 Day Trading Journal

Published at Mon, 07 Nov 2016 13:29:00 +0000

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate unchanged in September

Photo
tags
By Peggy_Marco from Pixabay

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate unchanged in September

by Bill McBride on 10/28/2016 05:04:00 PM

 Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate was at 1.24% in September, unchanged from 1.24% in August. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.59% in September 2015.
These are mortgage loans that are “three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure”.

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.

Fannie Freddie Seriously Delinquent RateClick on graph for larger image

Although the rate is generally declining, the “normal” serious delinquency rate is under 1%.

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.35 percentage points over the last year, and at that rate of improvement, the serious delinquency rate will not be below 1% for about 8 more months.

Note: Freddie Mac reported yesterday.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/10/fannie-mae-mortgage-serious-delinquency.html#vq3tLUIOtlPtLoyA.99

by Bill McBride on 10/28/2016 05:04:00 PM

Get The #1 Daily Trading Journal: TTW 30 Day: My Trading Journal
Published at Fri, 28 Oct 2016 21:04:00 +0000

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Zillow Forecast: Expect “Modest Acceleration” in YoY Growth in September for the Case-Shiller Indexes

Photo

https://pixabay.com/en/users/Peggy_Marco-1553824/

https://pixabay.com/en/users/Peggy_Marco-1553824/

By Peggy_Marco from Pixabay

Zillow Forecast: Expect “Modest Acceleration” in YoY Growth in September for the Case-Shiller Indexes

by Bill McBride on 10/26/2016 01:31:00 PM

 The Case-Shiller house price indexes for August were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.
From Zillow: September Case-Shiller Forecast: Modest Acceleration in Home Price Growth Will Continue

According to Zillow’s September Case-Shiller forecast, the national index and both smaller 10 and 20-city indices look set to continue the acceleration in home price growth they exhibited in August. And after more than two years of steady growth around 5 percent annually, the U.S. National Case-Shiller home price index is within striking distance of reaching its July 2006 peak levels, just 0.1 percent off those levels, according to today’s data.

The September Case-Shiller National Index is expected to grow 5.4 percent year-over-year and 0.7 percent month-to-month (seasonally adjusted). We expect the 10-City Index to grow 4.3 percent year-over-year and 0.3 percent (SA) from July. The 20-City Index is expected to grow 5.1 percent between September 2015 and September 2016, and rise 0.4 percent (SA) from August.

Zillow’s September Case-Shiller forecast is shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today’s August Case-Shiller data release and the September 2016 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). The September S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices will not be officially released until Tuesday, November 29.

The year-over-year change for the 10-city and 20-city indexes will probably be about the same in the September report as in the August report.  The change for the National index will probably be slightly higher.
Zillow forecast for Case-Shiller

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/10/zillow-forecast-expect-modest.html#K5KG45zeKLVaEIhE.99

by Bill McBride on 10/26/2016 01:31:00 PM

Get The #1 Daily Trading Journal: TTW 30 Day: My Trading Journal

Let’s block ads! (Why?)
Published at Wed, 26 Oct 2016 17:31:00 +0000

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and All Cash Sales for Selected Cities in September

Photo

new-home-1664317_640Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and All Cash Sales for Selected Cities in September

by Bill McBride on 10/24/2016 04:29:00 PM

 Economist Tom Lawler sent me the table below of short sales, foreclosures and all cash sales for selected cities in September.
On distressed: Total “distressed” share is down year-over-year in most of these markets.

Short sales and foreclosures are down in most of these areas.

The All Cash Share (last two columns) is mostly declining year-over-year. As investors continue to pull back, the share of all cash buyers continues to decline.

Short Sales Share Foreclosure Sales Share Total “Distressed” Share All Cash Share
Sep-
2016
Sep-
2015
Sep-
2016
Sep-
2015
Sep-
2016
Sep-
2015
Sep-
2016
Sep-
2015
Las Vegas 4.6% 6.8% 6.0% 7.1% 10.6% 13.9% 26.5% 26.8%
Reno** 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 5.0% 6.0%
Phoenix 1.7% 2.4% 2.0% 3.5% 3.7% 5.9% 20.2% 23.1%
Sacramento 1.4% 2.9% 3.1% 4.1% 4.5% 6.9% 16.3% 17.6%
Minneapolis 1.1% 1.9% 4.3% 6.6% 5.4% 8.5% 12.8% 12.5%
Mid-Atlantic 3.1% 3.9% 8.9% 11.1% 11.9% 14.9% 16.5% 17.5%
Florida SF 2.3% 3.5% 7.8% 16.0% 10.1% 19.4% 28.0% 34.1%
Florida C/TH 1.6% 2.1% 7.0% 14.3% 8.6% 16.4% 55.8% 59.7%
Miami MSA SF 3.3% 5.1% 9.4% 18.6% 12.7% 23.7% 28.5% 33.2%
Miami MSA CTH 2.7% 2.7% 9.5% 18.0% 12.1% 20.7% 58.1% 63.0%
Chicago (city) 12.1% 17.5%
Spokane 7.8% 7.8%
Northeast Florida 12.9% 23.4%
Orlando 31.3% 35.5%
Toledo 28.0% 26.5%
Tucson 22.2% 25.9%
Peoria 20.5% 22.3%
Georgia*** 20.8% 22.3%
Omaha 15.5% 18.1%
Pensacola 29.1% 31.4%
Rhode Island 11.1% 9.0%
Richmond VA 8.7% 10.5% 18.4% 15.2%
Memphis 8.8% 13.1%
Springfield IL** 9.7% 10.3%
*share of existing home sales, based on property records
**Single Family Only
***GAMLS

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/10/lawler-table-of-distressed-sales-and.html#8WSrR0uwCfBGbPMj.99

Get The #1 Daily Trading Journal: TTW 30 Day: My Trading Journal

Let’s block ads! (Why?)
Published at Mon, 24 Oct 2016 20:29:00 +0000

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Fannie Mae streamlines U.S. mortgage underwriting

 

Fannie Mae headquarters is seen in Washington November 7, 2013.REUTERS/Gary Cameron

Fannie Mae said on Monday it has launched a program to streamline its underwriting on mortgages for some borrowers that uses electronic data instead of physical proof of their income, assets and employment.

The U.S. government mortgage agency said the “Day 1 Certainty” program would also offer relief from representation and warranty for the appraised value of a home and a waiver of its property inspection requirement for many mortgage refinancings.

“Together, these innovations deliver greater speed, simplicity, and certainty to lenders and borrowers. They also bring stronger risk management and promote greater digitization of data and processes to the mortgage industry,” said Timothy Mayopoulos, Fannie Mae’s president and chief executive officer, in a statement.

These program features will be available on Dec. 10, Fannie Mae said.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac finance mortgages made by lenders by owning them and guaranteeing the bonds backed by these loans.

(Reporting by Richard Leong; Editing by Meredith Mazzilli)

Get The #1 Daily Trading Journal: TTW 30 Day: My Trading Journal

Let’s block ads! (Why?)
Published at Mon, 24 Oct 2016 15:36:10 +0000

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Schedule for Week of Oct 23, 2016

 

 

https://pixabay.com/en/users/geralt-9301/photo by geralt from pixabay

Schedule for Week of Oct 23, 2016

by Bill McBride on 10/22/2016 08:01:00 AM

The key economic reports this week are the advance estimate of Q3 GDP and September New Home Sales.

Also the Case-Shiller House Price Index for August will be released.

For manufacturing, the October Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released this week.

—– Monday, Oct 24th —–

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September. This is a composite index of other data.

—– Tuesday, Oct 25th —–

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for August 2016. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.  The consensus is for a 0.5% month-to-month increase for this index.
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices

9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for August. Although this is the August report, it is really a 3 month average of June, July and August prices.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the July 2016 report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 5.1% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for August. The Zillow forecast is for the National Index to increase 5.2% year-over-year in August.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October.

—– Wednesday, Oct 26th —–

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
New Home Sales

10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales for September from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the August sales rate.

The consensus is for an decrease in sales to 600 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in September from 609 thousand in August.

—– Thursday, Oct 27th —–

8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 255 thousand initial claims, down from 260 thousand the previous week.  Note: I expect some further impact on claims due to Hurricane Matthew.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for September from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in durable goods orders.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for September. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in the index.

10:00 AM: the Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership from the Census Bureau.

11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October.

—– Friday, Oct 28th —–

8:30 AM ET: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2016 (Advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.5% annualized in Q3.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (final for October). The consensus is for a reading of 88.5, up from the preliminary reading 87.9.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/10/schedule-for-week-of-oct-23-2016.html#veu3G2t8x5w4rVoE.99

by Bill McBride on 10/22/2016 08:01:00 AM

Get The #1 Daily Trading Journal: TTW 30 Day: My Trading Journal

Let’s block ads! (Why?)
Published at Sat, 22 Oct 2016 12:01:00 +0000

Continue reading >
0 Shares

A Few Comments on September Existing Home Sales

Photo
https://pixabay.com/en/users/Peggy_Marco-1553824/By Peggy_Marco from Pixabay

 

A Few Comments on September Existing Home Sales

by Bill McBride on 10/20/2016 12:12:00 PM

 Earlier: Existing Home Sales increased in September to 5.47 million SAAR
Inventory remains a key issue. Here is a repeat of two paragraphs I wrote about inventory a few months ago:

I expected some increase in inventory last year, but that didn’t happened.  Inventory is still very low and falling year-over-year (down 6.8% year-over-year in September). More inventory would probably mean smaller price increases and slightly higher sales, and less inventory means lower sales and somewhat larger price increases.

Two of the key reasons inventory is low: 1) A large number of single family home and condos were converted to rental units. Last year, housing economist Tom Lawler estimated there were 17.5 million renter occupied single family homes in the U.S., up from 10.7 million in 2000. Many of these houses were purchased by investors, and rents have increased substantially, and the investors are not selling (even though prices have increased too). Most of these rental conversions were at the lower end, and that is limiting the supply for first time buyers. 2) Baby boomers are aging in place (people tend to downsize when they are 75 or 80, in another 10 to 20 years for the boomers). Instead we are seeing a surge in home improvement spending, and this is also limiting supply.

Of course low inventory keeps potential move-up buyers from selling too.  If someone looks around for another home, and inventory is lean, they may decide to just stay and upgrade.

A key point: Some areas are seeing more inventory.   For example, there is more inventory in some coastal areas of California, in New York city and for high rise condos in Miami.

I’d consider any existing home sales rate in the 5 to 5.5 million range solid based on the normal historical turnover of the existing stock. As always, it is important to remember that new home sales are more important for jobs and the economy than existing home sales. Since existing sales are existing stock, the only direct contribution to GDP is the broker’s commission. There is usually some additional spending with an existing home purchase – new furniture, etc – but overall the economic impact is small compared to a new home sale.

The following graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Existing Home Sales NSAClick on graph for larger image.

Sales NSA in September (red column) were the highest for September since 2006 (NSA).

Note that sales NSA are in the slower Fall period, and will really slow seasonally in January and February.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/10/a-few-comments-on-september-existing.html#pCKAp3Ups7bXhpTA.99

by Bill McBride on 10/20/2016 12:12:00 PM

Let’s block ads! (Why?)
Published at Thu, 20 Oct 2016 16:12:00 +0000

Continue reading >
0 Shares

NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index remained negative in October Survey

NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index remained negative in October Survey

by Bill McBride on 10/20/2016 03:39:00 PM

From the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC): Apartment Markets Retreat in the October NMHC Quarterly Survey

Apartment markets softened across all four indexes in the October 2016 National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions. The Market Tightness (28), Sales Volume (42), Equity Financing (33) and Debt Financing (38) Indexes all landed below the breakeven level of 50 – showing weaker conditions from the previous quarter.

The growing supply of new apartments, primarily in the Class A space, appears to have finally reached a level to slow the historically high rent growth. Additionally, debt and equity markets are more discerning in terms of what deals they are ready to take on, including the continued slowing of available construction loans,”  said Mark Obrinsky, NMHC’s Senior Vice President of Research and Chief Economist. “Despite the softening due to the new development focus on Class A apartments, the overall fundamentals for apartments remain stable, indicated by the strong demand for Class B and C properties.”

The Market Tightness Index fell to 28, the lowest since July 2009 and the fourth quarter in a row showing declining conditions. Almost half of respondents (49 percent) reported looser conditions than three months ago. Likewise, only six percent noted tighter conditions. The remaining 45 percent reported no change at all.
emphasis added

Apartment Tightness Index
Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the quarterly Apartment Tightness Index. Any reading below 50 indicates looser conditions from the previous quarter. This indicates market conditions were looser over the last quarter.

As I’ve mentioned before, this index helped me call the bottom for effective rents (and the top for the vacancy rate) early in 2010.

This is the fourth consecutive quarterly survey indicating looser conditions – it appears supply has caught up with demand – and I expect rent growth to slow (the vacancy rate is generally creeping up too).

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/10/nmhc-apartment-market-tightness-index.html#fBPhaF0cbpQZ8j1F.99

by Bill McBride on 10/20/2016 03:39:00 PM

Let’s block ads! (Why?)
Published at Thu, 20 Oct 2016 19:39:00 +0000

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Existing Home Sales increased in September to 5.47 million SAAR

https://pixabay.com/en/users/Merio-1480566/

Photo by Merio at Pixabay

Existing Home Sales increased in September to 5.47 million SAAR

by Bill McBride on 10/20/2016 10:12:00 AM

From the NAR: First-time Buyers Steer Existing-Home Sales Higher in September

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, hiked 3.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.47 million in September from a downwardly revised 5.30 million in August. After last month’s gain, sales are at their highest pace since June (5.57 million) and are 0.6 percent above a year ago (5.44 million)….

Total housing inventory at the end of September rose 1.5 percent to 2.04 million existing homes available for sale, but is still 6.8 percent lower than a year ago (2.19 million) and has now fallen year-over-year for 16 straight months. Unsold inventory is at a 4.5-month supply at the current sales pace, which is down from 4.6 months in August.

Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in September (5.47 million SAAR) were 3.2% higher than last month, and were 0.6% above the September 2015 rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.
Existing Home InventoryAccording to the NAR, inventory increased to 2.04 million in September from 2.01 million in August.   Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory
Year-over-year InventoryInventory decreased 6.8% year-over-year in September compared to September 2015.

Months of supply was at 4.5 months in September.

This was above consensus expectations. For existing home sales, a key number is inventory – and inventory is still low. I’ll have more later …

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/10/existing-home-sales-increased-in.html#yaOZEHEwpwOm4DdY.99

by Bill McBride on 10/20/2016 10:12:00 AM

Let’s block ads! (Why?)
Published at Thu, 20 Oct 2016 14:12:00 +0000

Continue reading >
0 Shares

AIA: Architecture Billings Index declines in September

AIA: Architecture Billings Index declines in September

by Bill McBride on 10/19/2016 12:11:00 PM

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From the AIA: Further Contraction in Architecture Billings Index

For the first time since the summer of 2012, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) posted consecutive months of a decline in demand for design services. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the September ABI score was 48.4, down from the mark of 49.7 in the previous month. This score reflects a decrease in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 59.4, down from a reading of 61.8 the previous month.

“This recent backslide should act as a warning signal,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “But this drop-off in demand could be continued hesitancy in the marketplace to move forward on projects until the presidential election is decided. The fact that new work coming into architecture continues to slowly increase suggests that billings will resume their growth in the coming months”

• Regional averages: South (53.4), Midwest (50.1), West (49.5), Northeast (44.0)

• Sector index breakdown:commercial/industrial (50.4), mixed practice (49.8), institutional (49.0), multi-family residential (48.8)
emphasis added

AIA Architecture Billing IndexClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 48.4 in September, down from 49.7 in August. Anything below 50 indicates contraction in demand for architects’ services.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

According to the AIA, there is an “approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending” on non-residential construction.  This index was positive in 8 of the last 12 months, suggesting a further increase in CRE investment through mid-2017.  However if this drop-off continues, CRE investment could slow in the 2nd half of 2017.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/10/aia-architecture-billings-index.html#BjYpwt7obmLkpeMG.99

by Bill McBride on 10/19/2016 12:11:00 PM

Let’s block ads! (Why?)
Published at Wed, 19 Oct 2016 16:11:00 +0000

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Housing Starts decreased to 1.047 Million Annual Rate in September

{pixabay|100|campaign}Housing Starts decreased to 1.047 Million Annual Rate in September

Housing Starts decreased to 1.047 Million Annual Rate in September

by Bill McBride on 10/19/2016 08:38:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,047,000. This is 9.0 percent below the revised August estimate of 1,150,000 and is 11.9 percent (±11.9%) below the September 2015 rate of 1,189,000.

Single-family housing starts in September were at a rate of 783,000; this is 8.1 percent above the revised August figure of 724,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 250,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,225,000. This is 6.3 percent above the revised August rate of 1,152,000 and is 8.5 percent above the September 2015 estimate of 1,129,000.

Single-family authorizations in September were at a rate of 739,000; this is 0.4 percent above the revised August figure of 736,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 449,000 in September.
emphasis added

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing StartsClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.

Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) decreased significantly in September compared to August.  Multi-family starts are down sharply year-over-year.

Multi-family is volatile, and permits are up – so I expect multi-family starts to bounce back in October.

Single-family starts (blue) increased in September, and are up 5.4% year-over-year.
 

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing StartsThe second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then – after moving sideways for a couple of years – housing is now recovering (but still historically low),

Total housing starts in September were below expectations – due to the decline in multi-family starts – however combined starts for July and August were revised up.  I’ll have more later …

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/10/housing-starts-decreased-to-1047.html#EG47k81sSOMYy8dZ.99

by Bill McBride on 10/19/2016 08:38:00 AM

Let’s block ads! (Why?)
Published at Wed, 19 Oct 2016 12:38:00 +0000

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Wednesday: Housing Starts, Beige Book, 3rd Presidential Debate

Photo
tags
By meineresterampe from Pixabay

Wednesday: Housing Starts, Beige Book, 3rd Presidential Debate

by Bill McBride on 10/18/2016 09:04:00 PM

From Tim Duy: Are Yellen and Fischer Really Worlds Apart?

Bottom Line: The key debate within the Fed at the moment centers around the need for preemptive rate hikes. The hawks prefer more preemption, the doves favor less. Federal Reserve Lael Brainard pulled the FOMC to the dovish camp, primarily through her influence at Constitution Ave. Yellen is probably somewhat more sympathetic to Brainard than Fischer, but as I said last week, Fischer has moved substantially in Brainard’s direction. It is really the presidents that are on the hawkish side of the aisle. There just isn’t that much space between Yellen and Fischer at the moment.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for September. Total housing starts decreased to 1.142 million (SAAR) in August. Single family starts decreased to 722 thousand SAAR in August. The consensus for 1.180 million, up from the August rate.

• During the day, The AIA’s Architecture Billings Index for September (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

• At 9:00 PM ET, the Third Presidential Debate, at University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Las Vegas, NV


Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/10/wednesday-housing-starts-beige-book-3rd.html#qePQrE2aSUTuWBPp.99Wednesday: Housing Starts, Beige Book, 3rd Presidential Debate

by Bill McBride on 10/18/2016 09:04:00 PM

Let’s block ads! (Why?)
Published at Wed, 19 Oct 2016 01:04:00 +0000

Continue reading >
0 Shares

NAHB: Builder Confidence at 63 in October

Photo
tags
By geralt from Pixabay

NAHB: Builder Confidence at 63 in October

by Bill McBride on 10/18/2016 10:06:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 63 in October, down from 65 in September. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Remains Solid in Octobe

Builder confidence in the market for newly constructed single-family homes remained on firm ground in October, down two points to a level of 63 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

“The October reading represents a mild pullback from a jump in September, and indicates that the housing market continues to make slow and steady gains,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Moreover, mortgage rates remain low and the HMI index measuring future sales expectations has been over 70 for the past two months. These factors will sustain continued growth in the single-family market in the months ahead.”

Two of the three HMI components posted losses in October. The component gauging current sales conditions dropped two points to 69 and the index charting buyer traffic fell one point to 46. Meanwhile, the index measuring sales expectations in the next six months rose one point to 72.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the West increased two points to 75 while the Northeast, Midwest and South each posted one-point gains to 43, 56 and 65, respectively.
emphasis added

NAHB HMIClick on graph for larger image.

This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was at the consensus forecast of 63, and is another solid reading.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/10/nahb-builder-confidence-at-63-in-october.html#reUEd5DJFHMi2tmG.99

by Bill McBride on 10/18/2016 10:06:00 AM

Let’s block ads! (Why?)
Published at Tue, 18 Oct 2016 14:06:00 +0000

Continue reading >
0 Shares

FNC: Residential Property Values increased 5.7% year-over-year in August

new-home-1540889_640

FNC: Residential Property Values increased 5.7% year-over-year in August

by Bill McBride on 10/18/2016 03:04:00 PM

In addition to Case-Shiller, and CoreLogic, I’m also watching the FNC, Zillow and several other house price indexes.

FNC released their August 2016 index data.  FNC reported that their Residential Price Index™ (RPI) indicates that U.S. residential property values increased 0.5% from July to August (Composite 100 index, not seasonally adjusted).

The 10 city MSA increased 0.6% (NSA), the 20-MSA RPI increased 0.5%, and the 30-MSA RPI also increased 0.5% in August. These indexes are not seasonally adjusted (NSA), and are for non-distressed home sales (excluding foreclosure auction sales, REO sales, and short sales).

Notes: In addition to the composite indexes, FNC presents price indexes for 30 MSAs. FNC also provides seasonally adjusted data.

The index is still down 9.6% from the peak in 2006 (not inflation adjusted).

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change based on the FNC index (four composites) through August 2016. The FNC indexes are hedonic price indexes using a blend of sold homes and real-time appraisals.

Most of the other indexes are also showing the year-over-year change in the mid single digit range.

Note: The August Case-Shiller index will be released on Tuesday, October 27th.

by Bill McBride on 10/18/2016 03:04:00 PM

Let’s block ads! (Why?)
Published at Tue, 18 Oct 2016 19:04:00 +0000

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September

Photo
https://pixabay.com/en/users/paulbr75-2938186/By paulbr75 from Pixabay

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September

by Bill McBride on 10/17/2016 05:20:00 PM

 From housing economist Tom Lawler:
Based on publicly-available state and local realtor/MLS reports from across the country released through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.55 million in September, up 4.1% from August’s preliminary pace and up 2.0% from last September’s seasonally-adjusted pace.

Local realtor/MLS data also suggest that existing home listings in aggregate declined slightly last month, and I project that the inventory of existing homes for sale as estimated by the NAR for the end of August will be 1.99 million, down by about 2.5% from August’s preliminary estimate and down 9.1% from last September. Finally, I project that the NAR’s estimate of the median single-family existing home sales price for September will be $236,700, up 6.0% from last September.

Some readers will probably remember that my forecast for existing home sales for August – SAAR of 5.49 million, was both above consensus and above the NAR’s preliminary estimate (SAAR of 5.33 million). I attributed my miss partly to a misread of likely seasonal factors, and partly to the fact that my “early sample” proved not to be a good reflection of the entire market. Few probably recall, however, that my forecast for last August’s existing home sales number was similarly too high, and I also attributed that miss to the same factor’s as this August’s mix. My projection for September’s EHS, which I posted on October 16, 2015 (SAAR of 5.56 million) was almost spot on (the NAR’s preliminary EHS estimate was 5.55 million).

Sometimes it’s a good idea to review your own history!

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release September existing home sales on Thursday, October 20th. The consensus is for 5.35 million SAAR in September.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/10/lawler-early-read-on-existing-home.html#cfk2rjd2rRoLSFBb.99

by Bill McBride on 10/17/2016 05:20:00 PM

Let’s block ads! (Why?)
Published at Mon, 17 Oct 2016 21:20:00 +0000

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Tuesday: CPI, Homebuilder Confidence

 

Tuesday: CPI, Homebuilder Confidence

by Bill McBride on 10/17/2016 08:57:00 PM

Along with CPI, the BLS will release CPI-W, the Cost-Of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2017, the contribution base, and the National Average Wage Index. I expect COLA to be slightly positive, and for a fairly significant increase in the contribution base.

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Consumer Price Index for September from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.

• At 10:00 AM, the October NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of  63, down from 65 in September.  Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/10/tuesday-cpi-homebuilder-confidence.html#y3OpmWx5RGt2IjXO.99

by Bill McBride on 10/17/2016 08:57:00 PM

Let’s block ads! (Why?)
Published at Tue, 18 Oct 2016 00:57:00 +0000

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Mortgage Rates at 4-Month Highs

Photo
tags
By geralt from Pixabay

Mortgage Rates at 4-Month Highs

by Bill McBride on 10/12/2016 08:05:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates at 4-Month Highs

In and of itself, today wasn’t too bad of a day. Mortgage Rates were only slightly higher, and were generally unfazed by the release of the Minutes from the most recent Fed meeting. Market participants were concerned about the Minutes making a clearer case for a rate hike at the next meeting. Ultimately, the Minutes didn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know and bond markets (which dictate mortgage rates) improved.

Now for the unfortunate aspects of the day! When we consider today in the context of the past 9 days, we see that it prolongs a depressingly long losing streak. Mortgage rates haven’t moved lower since September 27th. Moreover, they’re roughly a quarter point higher since then! As for today’s bond market improvements, they were merely enough to get bonds back near yesterday’s latest levels, due to significant overnight weakness. In other words, bonds lost more ground overnight and this morning than they were able to gain back this afternoon.

3.625% is now the most prevalent conventional 30yr fixed quote on top tier scenarios, but several lenders remain at 3.5%.
emphasis added

Here is a table from Mortgage News Daily:

Averages Current Previous Change
Mortgage News Daily updated daily
30 Yr Fixed 3.56 3.57 -0.01
15 Yr Fixed 2.87 2.88 -0.01
FHA 30 Yr 3.40 3.40
Jumbo 30 Yr 3.71 3.72 -0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 2.93 2.95 -0.02
Freddie Mac updated weekly
30 Yr Fixed 3.47 3.42 +0.05
15 Yr Fixed 2.76 2.72 +0.04
1 Yr ARM 2.68 2.67 +0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 2.82 2.80 +0.02
FHFA updated monthly
15 Yr Fixed 3.05 3.08 -0.03
30 Yr Fixed 3.74 3.80 -0.06
30 Year Fixed

About These Rates Get This Widget

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/10/mortgage-rates-at-4-month-highs.html#VUWqEw8BQXGJibc5.99

by Bill McBride on 10/12/2016 08:05:00 PM

Let’s block ads! (Why?)
Published at Thu, 13 Oct 2016 00:05:00 +0000

Continue reading >
0 Shares
Page 3 of 4