All posts in "Turov"

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, May 22, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, May 22, 2017

The SPX advanced 16.01 points Friday to close at 2381.73.   TOT daily traders came into the session 200% short and have carried the position over the weekend and into today.

 

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17238.99 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1922.80 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.97 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.97 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 10, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.

 

TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% short, as our SPX 2389.28 stop was not reached.  Maintain the same stop on the position, as the daily model is bearish today.  If not stopped out, carry the position overnight again and into Tuesday.

 

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, May 19, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, May 19, 2017

The SPX advanced 8.69 points yesterday to close at 2365.72.   TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 2365.62 and held the position (with a miniscule 10 cent per unit loss) overnight and into today.

 

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17271.01cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1906.79 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.06 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.06 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 10, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.

 

TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% short.  We have no stop on the position.

 

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, May 17, 2017

The SPX declined 1.65 points yesterday to close at 2400.67.   TOT daily traders went 200% short on the 2404.55 opening and took profits on the close.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17271.21cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1941.74 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.89 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.89 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 10, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.

The news-neutral daily model is bullish for today, but the news swirling about the President is awful. TOT daily traders are advised to stand aside for the time being.  However, if – and only if – the SPX is in positive territory at 10:45 a.m., TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at the market at that time.  If the SPX is down on the day at 10:45 a.m., then continue to stand aside.  If you go long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.  If (still) long as we approach the close, sell the position on the close.  Also, since it is a certainty that the daily model will be bearish on Thursday, regardless what the market does today, go 100% short at the market on the close today and carry the position overnight and into Thursday (at which time we are likely to increase the size of the position).

 

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, May 16, 2017

A good start to the week as the SPX advanced 11.42 points yesterday to close at 2402.32.   TOT daily traders went 200% long on the opening and took profits on the close.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17263.45cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1943.39 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.88 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.88 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 10, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.

The daily model is bearish for today, and the market is likely to retrace all or some of yesterday’s advance.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at the market.  Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, May 15, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, May 15, 2017

The SPX declined 3.54 points yesterday to close at 2390.90.   TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the fifth session in a row, while followers of our Intermediate Model were short for the session.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17246.77cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1931.97 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.93 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.93 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 10, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.

The daily model is slightly bullish for today, but in the absence of news, the projected advance is likely to be minimal.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at the market.  Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, May 11, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, May 11, 2017

The SPX advanced 2.71 points yesterday to close at 2399.63.   TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the third session in a row.  For these three sessions in the aggregate, the SPX has gained a whopping 0.34 cumulative points.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17246.77 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1940.70points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.89 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.89to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 10, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.

As was the case yesterday, the daily model is dead neutral today.  Both bears and bulls are sleepy, and it will take some significant news to awaken one or the other.  We will snooze along with them; stand aside.  HOWEVER, if the Russell 2000 is up in the morning, then the odds are high that it will  continue that strength in the afternoon, and if so, there is a possibility that speculative interest there will spill into the overall market.  We shall see.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, May 10, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, May 10, 2017

The SPX declined 2.46 points yesterday to close at 2396.92.   TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17246.77 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1937.99points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.90 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.90to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 10, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.

As was the case yesterday, the daily model is dead neutral today.  Both bears and bulls are sleepy, and it will take some significant news to awaken one or the other.  We will snooze along with them; stand aside.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, May 9, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, May 9, 2017

The SPX advanced .09 point yesterday to close at 2399.38.   TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 2392.37 on Friday and took profits on yesterday’s close at SPX 2399.38.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17246.77cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1940.45 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.89 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.89 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 9, 2017.)  On March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346, I wrote, “The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.  Well, even though the SPX declined to a low of 2322 since March 24, its close of less than a point below 2400 on May 8 proves that forecast correct.  However, the moribund nature of the advance has caused the Intermediate Term Model to downtick to bearish.  But while the Intermediate Term Model is now bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.

The daily model is dead neutral today.  Both bears and bulls are sleepy, and it will take some significant news to awaken one or the other.  We will snooze along with them; stand aside.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, May 8, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, May 5, 2017

The SPX advanced 9.77 points Friday to close at 2399.29.   TOT daily traders went 300% long on the SPX 2392.37 opening (on anSPX 2391 stop) and have held the position over the weekend and into today.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17246.59cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1940.36 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.89 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.89 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 8, 2017.)  On March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346, I wrote, “The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.  Well, even though the SPX declined to a low of 2322 since March 24, its close of less than a point below 2400 on May 5 proves that forecast correct.  The SPX is likely to move above 2400 today.  After today, however, while the most likely direction is still northbound, expect to see the advance over the next two months be even more labored than it has been over the past two months.

On Friday, I said, “the market is likely to have its biggest gain of the week,” and it did.

TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% long.  Maintain the position.  Sell the position at SPX 2385 stop or SPX 2411 limit if either level is reached.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, May 5, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, May 5, 2017

The SPX advanced 1.39 points yesterday to close at 2389.52.   TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained17225.83 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1930.59 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.92 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.92 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The market is likely to have its biggest gain of the week, which is a little like describing the Brooklyn Nets’ best game of the season.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 2391 stop.  If the SPX declines to 2386 before advancing to 2391, lower the buy stop to SPX 2388, and for each additional 2 point decline, if it occurs, lower the stop by an equivalent 2 points.  Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.  If still long as we approach the close, and if the SPX is up on the session, hold the position over the weekend and into Monday.  If still long as we approach the close, and if the SPX is down on the session, I’ll have an intraday update at about 3:50 Eastern time.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, May 4, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, May 4, 2017

The SPX declined 3.04 points yesterday to close at 2388.13.   TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

The market has been going nowhere for the past two months.  On March 3, two months ago, the SPX closed at 2383.12, virtually unchanged from yesterday’s close.  The Dow Industrials are down from 21005 to 20958.  The Nasdaq 100 has advanced from 5373 to 5625.  And the Russell 2000 is virtually unchanged from 1394 to 1391.  Even mostly-unrelated gold, as measured by the ETF, GLD, is virtually unchanged from 117.51 to 117.96.  A “buy and hold” investor, unless he was in the Nasdaq, might have just as well spent the past two months with Phil in Punxsutawney.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17225.83 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1929.20 pointsin the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.93 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.93 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk. It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

Although I know this is sounding like a broken record (now that’s an expression that’s headed for extinction) the daily model is neutral today.  Sans news, the market has no internal direction.  Once again,  will stand aside .

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, May 3, 2017

by jarmoluk from Pixabay

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, May 3, 2017

The SPX advanced 2.84 points yesterday to close at 2391.17, but all of the advance was in the last few minutes (in my opinion, because of Apple expected earnings which turned out to be poor compared to expectations).   TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17225.83 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1932.24 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.91 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.91 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

While all Turov Investment Group clients in accounts that permit short selling went 2x short the Dow Industrials on yesterday’s close, the SPX-based daily model is neutral today.  We will stand aside .

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, May 1, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, May 1, 2017

Another good day for the home team as the SPX declined 4.57 points Friday to close at 2384.20.  TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 2389.80 and covered the short profitably on the close.  We also went 200% long on the close and have carried the long position over the weekend and into today.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17217.91 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1925.27 pointsin the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.94 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.94 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The daily model is bullish today.  TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% long. Go an additional 200% long at SPX 2385 stop or SPX 2381 limit, whichever comes first.  Once long, use a protective sell stop at SPX 2357 for the time being.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, April 28, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, April 28, 2017.

The SPX advanced 1.32 points yesterday to close at 2388.77.  TOT daily traders went 100% long at SPX 2390 sold the unleveraged position on the close.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17201.11 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1929.84 pointsin the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.91 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.91 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

After the close yesterday, Amazon and Alphabet both announced earnings results that were very well received by the market.  Resultantly, the market is likely to open strongly this morning.  However, that is likely to be the high for the day.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at the market at9:35 a.m., five minutes after the opening.  Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, April 27, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, April 27, 2017

The SPX declined 1.16 points yesterday to close at 2387.45.  TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 2395.06 and covered the short at the SPX 2387.45 close.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17202.34 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1928.52 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.92 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.92 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The SPX-based daily model is slightly bullish today.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 100% long at SPX 2390 stop.  If you go long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, April 26, 2017

The SPX advanced 14.46 points yesterday to close at 2388.61.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

For the year, 2017 to date so far, TOT daily traders have gained 159.86 cumulative SPX points, more than the 109.86 point gain in the SPX itself.  That +1.5 outperformance ratio is far below our long-term ratio of more than +8.91 to one, but outperforming a bull market is much more difficult than outperforming a bear market, in my opinion.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17187.12 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1929.68 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.91 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.91 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The SPX-based daily model is neutral today, but if the SPX rallies to 2395, it becomes an attractive short for a 200% position.  If you go short at 2395, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, April 25, 2017

The SPX advanced 25.46 points yesterday to close at 2374.15.  All of the gain was a function of the French election.  On yesterday’s hotline, I said, “it would not surprise me if the overnight futures jump ended up being ‘it’ for the day.”  And indeed, all of the day’s gain did indeed occur on the opening.  For example, the SPX ETF, SPY, opened at 237.18 and closed at 237.17.   TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session as we chose not to guess about the outcome of the French election, but standing on the sidelines once the market gapped open cost us not a penny.

For the year, 2017 to date so far, TOT daily traders have gained 159.86 cumulative SPX points, more than the 109.86 point gain in the SPX itself.  That +1.5 outperformance ratio is far below our long-term ratio of more than +8.97 to one, but outperforming a bull market is much more difficult than outperforming a bear market, in my opinion.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17187.12 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1915.22points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.97 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.97to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The daily model shows that the odds of the market advancing versus declining are equal.  However, the Index Models show that the magnitude of a potential decline exceeds the magnitude of a potential advance.  It’s not enough of an edge to risk much capital.   We will stay on the sidelines again today, although I wouldn’t argue with anyone who wanted to take a small short position.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, April 21, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, April 21, 2017

The SPX advanced 17.67 points yesterday to close at 2355.84.  TOT daily traders came into the session 300% long and took profits on the close.

For the week so far, TOT daily traders have gained 87.33 cumulative SPX points, more than erasing last week’s loss.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17175.02 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1896.91 pointsin the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.05 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.05 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The daily model is bearish today, and I look for the market to decline – although in the absence of significant negative news, I doubt it will decline by much.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 2355 stop.  If the If the SPX advances to 2360 before declining to 2355, raise your entry sell short stop to SPX 2358, and for each additional 2 point advance, if it occurs, raise the entry sell short stop by an equivalent 2 points.  Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.  If still short as we approach the close, cover the position on the close.

Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, April 20, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, April 20, 2017

The SPX declined 4.02 points yesterday to close at 2338.17 after being up sharply in the early going.  TOT daily traders went 300% long on the opening and have held the position overnight and into today.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17122.01 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1879.24 pointsin the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.11 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.11 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The daily model is bullish today, and I look for the market to advance.  TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% long from SPX 2346.79.  Our 1% protective sell stop on the position is at SPX 2323.32. (NOTE:  If you are risking more than 1% times 3 – i.e., 3% – of your capital on this trade, you’re overtrading.)

If not stopped out, and if the SPX is closing below 2340.67, hold the position overnight and into Friday.  Otherwise, sell the position on the close.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, April 19, 2017

This is a 3:38 intraday update of Turov on Timing for Wednesday, April 19, 2017
The market started the day strongly and has since given back all of its gains and then some.  TOT daily traders went 300% long on today’s opening.  Maintain the 1% protective sell stop on the position.  If not stopped out, carry the position overnight and into tomorrow, where the odds favor a reversal of today’s decline.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service.

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