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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Wednesday, January 3, 2018

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Wednesday, January 3, 2018

by Daniel Turov

The SPX advanced 22.18 points yesterday to close at 2695.79. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session as our forecast was incorrect. Fortunately, we did not go short; whew…
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17587.26 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2236.86 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 7.86 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +7.86 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands, and we see it happening already.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 6, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains bullish. The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs – and that can be tomorrow or three years from now. There have been LOTS of reasons for the market to decline over recent months, but it has remained stoically resistant to declining. I would much rather be bearish than bullish — because the market seems to be significantly overvalued — but the model disagrees (primarily as a result of continuing and historically low interest rates).
The daily model is bullish, but the index models are forecasting an extremely modest advance. We will stand aside at the get-go but we will update later today.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Tuesday, January 2, 2018

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Tuesday, January 2, 2018

by Daniel Turov

The SPX declined 13.93 points Friday to close at 2673.61, with more than half of the loss occurring during the last ten minutes of the session.  TOT daily traders were short for most of the session and had a 14 point profit on the day.

For the week as a whole, our daily trader recommendations gained 15.56 cumulative SPX points, compared to a loss of 9.73 points in the index itself.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17587.26 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2214.68 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 7.94 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +7.94 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 6, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains bullish.  The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs – and that can be tomorrow or three years from now.  There have been LOTS of reasons for the market to decline over recent months, but it has remained stoically resistant to declining.  I would much rather be bearish than bullish — because the market seems to be significantly overvalued — but the model disagrees (primarily as a result of continuing and historically low interest rates).

Although the market usually advances on the first trading day of the new year, today is likely to be an exception.  The daily model is bearish today, but I am disinclined to short at the onset.  Stand aside for now, and I’ll update later today.

Both TIG’s Gold and Bond models are bullish.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Friday, December 29, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Friday, December 29, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX advanced 4.92 points yesterday to close at 2687.54, with half of the gain occurring during the last ten minutes of the session.

 Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17573.26 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2228.61 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 7.89 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +7.89 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 (The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

 (The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 6, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains bullish.  The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs – and that can be tomorrow or three years from now.  There have been LOTS of reasons for the market to decline over recent months, but it has remained stoically resistant to declining.  I would much rather be bearish than bullish — because the market seems to be significantly overvalued — but the model disagrees (primarily as a result of continuing and historically low interest rates).

 The daily model is bearish today, but the expected magnitude of the decline is modest.  TOT daily traders went 200% short on the close yesterday and have held the position overnight and into today.  I want to risk 7 points to make 7 points (times the two units).  Cover the short at SPX 2694.54 stop or at SPX 2680.54, whichever comes first.  If the SPX doesn’t reach either number, cover the short on the close, as the preliminary odds favor Tuesday being up.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Thursday, December 28, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Thursday, December 28, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX advanced 2.12 points yesterday to close at 2682.62, reversing most of Tuesday’s decline.  For most of the day, the SPX was lower, and it was only a late day rally that moved the market into the black.  TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 2682.10 and took a minor profit on the close.

Nevertheless, since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17573.26 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2223.69 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 7.90 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +7.90 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 6, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains bullish.  The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs – and that can be tomorrow or three years from now.  There have been LOTS of reasons for the market to decline over recent months, but it has remained stoically resistant to declining.  I would much rather be bearish than bullish — because the market seems to be significantly overvalued — but the model disagrees (primarily as a result of continuing and historically low interest rates).

The market is like a see-saw today.  Perhaps the older name – teeter-totter – is more appropriate.  Just like a teeter-totter which is balanced when two children of equal weight are on either side but can move violently if one child were to jump off, the market has the potential for a violent move if there is surprising news, but otherwise, is likely to be very balanced.  Not knowing what unknown news might be lurking, we will stand aside, comfortable in our knowledge that not admitting ignorance is the epitome of stupidity.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Friday, December 22, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Friday, December 22, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX advanced 5.32 points yesterday to close at 2684.57, with more than 100% of the gain being on the opening.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.  We are currently flat.

Nevertheless, since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17571.70 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2225.64 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 7.90 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +7.90 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 6, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains bullish.  The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs – and that can be tomorrow or three years from now.  There have been LOTS of reasons for the market to decline over recent months, but it has remained stoically resistant to declining.  I would much rather be bearish than bullish — because the market seems to be significantly overvalued — but the model disagrees (primarily as a result of continuing and historically low interest rates).

The daily model is dead neutral today.  The market will likely open higher, then sink, as it has done all this week.  Stand aside for now.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Wednesday, December 20, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Wednesday, December 20, 2017

by Daniel Turov

 The SPX declined 8.69 points yesterday to close at 2681.47.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.  On yesterday’s message, I said, “I expect to see a fairly quiet session with the market taking a breather from the past two strong days”

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17583.70 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2222.54 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 7.91 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +7.91 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 (The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

 (The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 6, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains bullish.  The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs – and that can be tomorrow or three years from now.  There have been LOTS of reasons for the market to decline over recent months, but it has remained stoically resistant to declining.  I would much rather be bearish than bullish — because the market seems to be significantly overvalued — but the model disagrees (primarily as a result of continuing and historically low interest rates).

 The daily model is bullish today.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at SPX 2682 stop; 2685 limit.  (That means buy at a limit of 2685 or lower if and when the SPX trades at 2682 or higher.)

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Tuesday, December 19, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Tuesday, December 19, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX advanced 14.35 points yesterday to close at 2690.16.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.  On yesterday’s message, I said, “I am unenthusiastic about the SPX (which I expect to open higher but probably not advance much above the expected opening gap.)”  That’s precisely what happened as SPY opened at 288.10 and closed almost unchanged at 288.20.  On the other hand, Turov on Overnight Possibility subscribers bought on Friday’s close and had a very decent profit on the day.  That is the primary purpose of TOP – to be able to profit from gaps.

Nevertheless, since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17583.70 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2231.23 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 7.88 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +7.88 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 (The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

 (The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 6, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains bullish.  The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs – and that can be tomorrow or three years from now.  There have been LOTS of reasons for the market to decline over recent months, but it has remained stoically resistant to declining.  I would much rather be bearish than bullish — because the market seems to be significantly overvalued — but the model disagrees (primarily as a result of continuing and historically low interest rates).

 The daily model is neutral today.  I expect to see a fairly quiet session with the market taking a breather from the past two strong days.  Stand aside for now.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Monday, December 18, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Monday, December 18, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX advanced 23.80 points yesterday to close at 2675.81.  TOT daily traders went 400% long at SPX 2660.63 on a 2653 buy stop and took profits on the close.

 For the week, our daily trader recommendations gained 28.72 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 24.31 points in the index itself

 Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17583.70 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2216.88 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 7.93 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +7.93 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 (The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

 (The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 6, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains bullish.  The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs – and that can be tomorrow or three years from now.  There have been LOTS of reasons for the market to decline over recent months, but it has remained stoically resistant to declining.  I would much rather be bearish than bullish — because the market seems to be significantly overvalued — but the model disagrees (primarily as a result of continuing and historically low interest rates).

 There is a conflict between the bearish daily model and the bullish index models.  We are continuing to track these conflicts, and at present, the index models appear to be more accurate.  But the universe of cases is still too small for a definitive decision.  I expect today to be a tug of war between the bulls who are happy that the tax bill will likely pass, and the bears asking whether they should be selling on the expected news.

I don’t trade against the daily model, even though there is a conflict (as described in the previous paragraph), and I do expect the Nasdaq to be up.  I am personally long the Internet ETF (FDN) for the second consecutive day, but I am unenthusiastic about the SPX (which I expect to open higher but probably not advance much above the expected opening gap).

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Friday, December 15, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Friday, December 15, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX declined 10.84 points yesterday to close at 2652.01.  Although we forecast a falling market yesterday, TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17522.98 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of2193.08 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 7.99 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +7.99 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 6, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains bullish.  The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs – and that can be tomorrow or three years from now.  There have been LOTS of reasons for the market to decline over recent months, but it has remained stoically resistant to declining.  I would much rather be bearish than bullish — because the market seems to be significantly overvalued — but the model disagrees (primarily as a result of continuing and historically low interest rates).

The daily model is very bullish today, and the odds of the market rising are about 3:1.  Please note that means there is a 25% chance the market will not rise!

TOT daily traders are advised to go 400% long at SPX 2653 stop.  If the SPX declines to 2648 before reaching 2653, lower the entry buy stop to SPX 2650.  And for each additional 2 point decline, if it occurs, lower the entry buy stop by an equivalent 2 points.  Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.

If the SPX is up on the day, take your profit on the close, and I’ll email you again prior to Monday’s opening.  If the SPX is down on the day, or too close to call, I’ll email you again prior to today’s close.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Tuesday, December 12, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX advanced 14.52 points Friday to close at 2659.99.  TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 2654 and have held the position overnight and into today.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17543.00 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2201.06 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 7.97 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +7.97 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 6, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains bullish.  The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs – and that can be tomorrow or three years from now.  There have been LOTS of reasons for the market to decline over recent months, but it has remained stoically resistant to declining.  I would much rather be bearish than bullish — because the market seems to be significantly overvalued — but the model disagrees (primarily as a result of continuing and historically low interest rates).

The daily model is bearish today, although overnight futures are up.  TOT daily traders are currently 200% short. Maintain the 1% buy stop on the position at SPX 2680.54.  If you are risking more than 2% of your equity (1% times 2 units), you are overtrading, in my opinion.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Monday, December 11, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Monday, December 11, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX advanced 14.52 points Friday to close at 2651.50.  TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 2635 on Thursday, held the position overnight and into Friday, and took profits at SPX 2651.50 on Friday’s close.

For the week as a whole, our daily trader recommendations gained 26.81 cumulative SPX points, almost triple the gain of 9.28 points in the index itself.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17554.98 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2192.57 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.01 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.01 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 6, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains bullish.  The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs – and that can be tomorrow or three years from now.  There have been LOTS of reasons for the market to decline over recent months, but it has remained stoically resistant to declining.  I would much rather be bearish than bullish — because the market seems to be significantly overvalued — but the model disagrees (primarily as a result of continuing and historically low interest rates).

The daily model is bearish today, although overnight futures are up a tad.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 2650 stop.  If the SPX advances to 2654 before declining to 2650, raise your entry sell stop to SPX 2652.  And for each additional 2 point advance, if it occurs, raise the entry sell stop by an equivalent 2 points.  Once short, use a 1% buy stop on the position.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Thursday, December 7, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Wednesday, December 6, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX declined .3 point yesterday to close at 2629.27.  It was the fourth consecutive decline for the SPX.  TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 2628 and took a 3.81 point cumulative profit, selling on the close.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17521.98 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2170.34 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.07 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.07 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 6, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains bullish.  The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs – and that can be tomorrow or three years from now.  There have been LOTS of reasons for the market to decline over recent months, but it has remained stoically resistant to declining.  I would much rather be bearish than bullish — because the market seems to be significantly overvalued — but the model disagrees (primarily as a result of continuing and historically low interest rates).

The market has the potential to go up 20 SPX points or more today.  But it also has the potential to go down by 20 SPX points or more.  Up is more likely than down, but either is a good possibility.  TOT is an SPX-related service, so we’re not going to stick our nose where it doesn’t belong, but straddles at or below fair value seem like the best bet.  I’m inclined to go long – but I won’t.  Stand aside as risk is simply too high.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Wednesday, December 6, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Wednesday, December 6, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX declined 9.87 points yesterday to close at 2629.57.  It was the third consecutive decline for the SPX.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.  (Advertisement: Turov on Overnight Possibilities traders were long the TLT ETF for a .56% gain.)
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17518.17 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2170.64 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.07 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.07 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 6, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains bullish.  The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs – and that can be tomorrow or three years from now.  There have been LOTS of reasons for the market to decline over recent months, but it has remained stoically resistant to declining.  I would much rather be bearish than bullish — because the market seems to be significantly overvalued — but the model disagrees (primarily as a result of continuing and historically low interest rates).
The daily model is bullish today, and it is backed up by bullish readings in all four of the major indices.  However, because of a Consumers Report article released late Tuesday concluding that IPhone X is inferior to Samsung’s new phones, Apple and Nasdaq may open lower.  That’s good if it enables us to go long at a lower price.
TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 2632 stop (which I don’t believe will be reached until lower prices are reached first.  If the SPX declines to 2628 before reaching 2632, lower the entry buy stop to SPX 2630.  And for each additional 2 point decline, if it occurs, lower the stop by an equivalent 2 points.  Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Tuesday, December 5, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Tuesday, December 5, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX declined 2.78 points yesterday to close at 2639.44 in a day that saw the market fall precipitously after a very strong opening.  TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 2650 and took a small loss, closing the position at SPX 2645.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17518.17 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2180.51 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.03 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.03 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 6, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains bullish.  The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs – and that can be tomorrow or three years from now.  There have been LOTS of reasons for the market to decline over recent months, but it has remained stoically resistant to declining.  I would much rather be bearish than bullish — because the market seems to be significantly overvalued — but the model disagrees (primarily as a result of continuing and historically low interest rates).

While the Dow kept some of its early gains yesterday, and the SPX was down only a small amount (although both were down a lot from their highs), the Nasdaq index really got hit hard, falling 1.17%.  Tech stocks were hit especially hard.  I noticed in Alex Eule’s column in this week’s BARRON’S that 64% of the world’s memory chips are produced in South Korea – so while markets remain rather sanguine about the North Korean nuclear threat, a war there, which the Eurasia Group puts at a 20% possibility in the Eule column, would slow worldwide technology growth significantly, with repercussions in many other industries, as well, no doubt.

Yesterday had all the flavor of a bearish reversal, but the daily model is bullish today.  I NEVER take a position contrary to the daily model but I sometimes override it.  Today is one of those days.  Stand aside.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

Continue reading >
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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Monday, December 4, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Monday, December 4, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX declined points 5.36 points Friday to close at 2642.22 in a day that saw the market fall precipitously before recovering more than ¾ of the decline.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17528.17 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2183.29 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.03 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.03 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 6, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains bullish.  The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs – and that can be tomorrow or three years from now.  There have been LOTS of reasons for the market to decline over recent months, but it has remained stoically resistant to declining.  I would much rather be bearish than bullish — because the market seems to be significantly overvalued — but the model disagrees (primarily as a result of continuing and historically low interest rates).

In a report I sent out Friday afternoon at 3:26, I said, “the SPX-based daily model is likely to be bullish” on Monday, and overnight futures are indeed up sharply indicating that the SPX will indeed be strong today.  If TOT daily traders can go 200% long at SPX 2650 or lower, do so.  Otherwise, chasing the overnight futures seems too risky.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

Continue reading >
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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Friday, December 1, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Friday, December 1, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX advanced 21.51 points yesterday to close at 2647.58.  TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 2636 and took our lumps on the close.  It’s been a rough week..  We are currently flat.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17528.17 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2188.65 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.01 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.01 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 6, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains bullish.  The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs – and that can be tomorrow or three years from now.  There have been LOTS of reasons for the market to decline over recent months, but it has remained stoically resistant to declining.  I would much rather be bearish than bullish — because the market seems to be significantly overvalued — but the model disagrees (primarily as a result of continuing and historically low interest rates).

The daily model is neutral today, and that is doubly true with the tax bill up in the air.  We may take a position later in the day, but for the time being, stand aside.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Thursday, November 30, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Thursday, November 30, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX declined 0.97 points yesterday to close at 2626.07.  TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 2627.82 and sold at 2626.07 on the close.  We are currently flat.

For the month of November as a whole so far, our daily trader recommendations have gained 69.94 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 50.81points in the index itself over the same period.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17551.33 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2167.14 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.10 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.10 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 6, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains bullish.  The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs – and that can be tomorrow or three years from now.  There have been LOTS of reasons for the market to decline over recent months, but it has remained stoically resistant to declining.  I would much rather be bearish than bullish — because the market seems to be significantly overvalued — but the model disagrees (primarily as a result of continuing and historically low interest rates).

The daily model is bearish today, with most of the anticipated day’s decline occurring late in the session.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 2625 stop.  If the SPX rises to 2628 before declining to 2625, raise the entry sell stop to SPX 2626.  And for each additional 2 point advance, if it occurs, raise the entry sell stop by an equivalent 2 points.  Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.  If still short as we approach the close, cover the position at the market and go overnight flat.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Tuesday, November 28, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX declined 1 point yesterday to close at 2601.42.  TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 2600.42 on Friday and took a really, really small profit, selling on Monday’s close.

On the other hand (advertisement coming), in Turov on Overnight Possibilities, I had recommended GDX (the precious metals ETF) on Friday’s close at 22.83; it closed Monday at 23.05, a 1% gain.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance, (but, IMHO, it isn’t irrelevant either).

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17574.83 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2142.49 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.20 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.20 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 6, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains bullish.  The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs – and that can be tomorrow or three years from now.  There have been LOTS of reasons for the market to decline over recent months, but it has remained stoically resistant to declining.  I would much rather be bearish than bullish — because the market seems to be significantly overvalued — but the model disagrees (primarily as a result of continuing and historically low interest rates).

The daily model is bearish today, and TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at the market.  Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Thursday, November 23, 2017

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

Continue reading >
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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Wednesday, November 22, 2017

by geralt from Pixabay

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Wednesday, November 22, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX advanced 16.89 points yesterday to close at 2599.03.  SPX-based TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.  However, Turov on Overnight Possibilities traders went long the GDX ETF and had a .80% profit on the session (times whatever leverage they used).

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17571.83 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2140.10 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.21 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.21 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 6, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains bullish.  The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs – and that can be tomorrow or three years from now.  There have been LOTS of reasons for the market to decline over recent months, but it has remained stoically resistant to declining.  I would much rather be bearish than bullish — because the market seems to be significantly overvalued — but the model disagrees (primarily as a result of continuing and historically low interest rates).

The SPX outlook is mixed for today, and the key will be news (if any is significant) and how the index acts as it breaks (or doesn’t) the 2600 level.  We will stand aside for the time being.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

Continue reading >
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