All posts in "Turov"

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, August 2, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, August 2, 2017

The SPX advanced 6.05 points yesterday to close at 2476.35.  TOT daily traders came into the session 400% short and took our loss on the close.  Note that while the major indices advanced yesterday, more than all of the advance occurred on the opening, and for the balance of the day, the market actually declined.

 

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17306.04 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2017.42 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.58 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.58 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017.)  Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now.  I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this medium term bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.

 

The SPX looks pretty good after the first 75 minutes of trading or so.  Stand aside for now.

 

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, August 1, 2017

The SPX declined 3.32 points Friday to close at 2470.30.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17330.14 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of2011.37 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.62 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.62 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017.)  Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now.  I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this medium term bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.

While the first day of any month is usually bullish, the first day of August is generally “ho-hum”.  Overnight futures are up, and I can’t find any news that would explain it.  Best guesses: (1) momentum in the Dow Industrials, even though the vast majority of the recent gains there have been because of strength in Boeing; (2) a belief that the first day of the month “just has to be up” and (3) optimism in General Kelly’s appointment as Chief of Staff and the sense that President Trump has finally realized that he has been elected President and not Emperor, and that delegation of authority is not necessarily a bad thing.  In any event, the daily model is bearish today, with most of the day’s decline due in the afternoon.  TOT daily traders come into today’s session 400% short.  Use a protective buy stop at SPX 2485 on half the position and at SPX 2495 on the other half.

 

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, July 31, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, July 31, 2017

The SPX declined 3.32 points Friday to close at 2472.10.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17327.36 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of2013.17 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.61 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.61 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 19, 2017.)  Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now.  I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.

On June 19, the next to last day of Spring, the SPX closed at 2453.46.  As of Friday, almost half-way through Summer, the SPX closed at 2472.10, 18.7 points – a mere ¾ of 1% – higher.  Not much of a summer rally so far.

The daily model is bearish today, with most of the day’s decline due in the last hour of the day.  TOT daily trader are advised to go 200% short at SPX 2472 stop.  If you go short, use no protective buy stop until 10:45 a.m..  At that time, if you have already gone 200% short, go an additional 200% short at the market.  If you have not already gone short, go 400% short at the market.  After you are 400% short, use a stop 1% above the 10:45 price.

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, July 28, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, July 28, 2017

The SPX declined 2.41 points yesterday to close at 2475.42.  TOT daily traders came into the session 200% long and were stopped out at SPX 2470 on the way from the SPX cratering from 2474 down to 2460 before clawing its way back to a minor loss on the day.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17327.36 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2016.49 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.59 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.59 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 19, 2017.)  Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now.  I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.
The daily model is neutral today, but most of the Index models are bearish.  Even though the penultimate day of the month has a favorable seasonal bias, today could be nasty.  The risk is too high to go long, and seasonality makes me disinclined to go short.  We will stand aside, mirroring the position of all TIG managed accounts which are safely ensconced in a money market fund.  While not a forecast, since I don’t have corroborating data, I feel we could see all of July’s gains evaporate during the last two trading days of the month, today and Monday.

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, July 27, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, July 27, 2017

The SPX advanced .7 point yesterday to close at 2477.83.  TOT daily traders went 200% long at 2479.14 and have held the position overnight and into tomorrow.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17343.02 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of2018.90 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.59 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.59 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 19, 2017.)  Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now.  I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.

TOT daily traders went 200% long at 2479.14 yesterday and have held the position overnight and into today.  There is a reasonably high probability that the daily model will be bullish on Friday, as well as today, so I’m reluctant to see the position stopped out.  A 1% risk (x 2 units) would be a stop at SPX 2454.35, and that’s the stop we’ll use.  (By the way, if being stopped out at SPX 2454.35 would result in a loss of more than 2% of your account’s value, then, IMHO, you’re over-leveraging.)  If not stopped out, carry the position overnight and into tomorrow.

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, July 25, 2017

The SPX declined 2.63 point yesterday to close at 2469.91.  TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 2470.  Our sell stop was also at 2470 (subsequent to an SPX rise to 2473), but as of 3:59 and 59 seconds, the SPX was still above 2370.  In other words, nobody could have known that the SPX would be closing below our stop.  Therefore, as we have done in the past when similar situations occurred, we are not treating it as a stop-out and are considering it as a held-overnight position.

 

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17331.20cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2010.98 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.62to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.62 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 19, 2017.)  Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now.  I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.

 

For reasons explained in the first paragraph of today’s report, TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% long from SPX 2470.  For the time being, use a protective sell stop on the position at SPX 2460.  The daily model is bullish today.  The Index models are slightly bearish for the early going, and they point higher later in the day.

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, July 21, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, July 21, 2017

The SPX declined 0.38 point yesterday to close at 2473.83 after being above zero for most of the session.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session and missed absolutely nothing.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17331.38 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2014.90 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.60 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.60 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 19, 2017.)  Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now.  I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.

The daily model is slightly bearish today, but I expect to see the Technology Sector buck the trend.  In the absence of news, I don’t see much to gain by going short the SPX (TOT is an SPX-based service), and we will not take an SPX position.

Misc. note:  The Wall Street Journal reported late Thursday, as follows: “Former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort is being investigated by special counsel Robert Mueller for possible money laundering as part of his investigation into Russian election-meddling, the Wall Street Journal reported late Thursday. The Journal reported both the Senate and House intelligence committees are also investigating Manafort for money laundering. Manafort worked for years as a political consultant for a pro-Russia party in Ukraine, and led Donald Trump’s presidential campaign for about three months last year. In a separate reportWednesday, the New York Times reported Manafort was as much as $17 million in debt to pro-Russia interests before joining Trump’s campaign. The Journal said the New York attorney general and Manhattan district attorney are also looking into Manafort’s real estate transactions for potential money laundering and fraud. Manafort was asked Wednesday to publicly testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee next week to discuss a June 2016 meeting he attended between top Trump advisers and a Russian lawyer who had promised them damaging information on Hillary Clinton.”  And MarketWatch reported, “President Donald Trump and his legal team are discussing his authority to grant pardons and potential ways to undermine special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into Russian election meddling, according to a Washington Post report late Thursday. The Post said Trump has asked about his power to pardon aides, family members and even himself. A president has never tried to pardon himself, and the legal implications of that could be explosive. The Post also reported Trump’s legal team is trying to keep Mueller’s probe from expanding to include the president’s finances, and are collecting potential alleged conflicts of interest they see coming from his office — which could potentially be used to remove Mueller from his position.”  Nasty stuff – unclear if the market will care.

 

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, July 20, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, July 20, 2017

Those of you who attended my seminar several years ago no doubt remember my friend and mentor, Earl Zazove, who introduced me.  Well, today is Earl’s 97th birthday, and he is still going strong!  Happy birthday Earl!

The SPX advanced 13.22 points yesterday to close at 2473.83.  TOT daily traders came into the session 200% short and fortunately closed out the position on the 2463.85 opening.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17331.38 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2014.90 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.60 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.60 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 19, 2017.)  Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now.  I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.

The daily model is slightly bullish today, with most of the expected gain taking place as the session advances.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at the market at 10:45 a.m. if the SPX is up at that time.  If the SPX is down at that time, I advise standing aside.  If you go long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.

 

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, July 19, 2017

In another quiet session, after opening lower, the market clawed its way back, eventually closing with the SPX slightly higher.  As of the close, the SPX advanced 1.47 points yesterday to close at 2460.61, the high of the day.   TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 2458 on Monday and have held the position overnight twice and into today.

 

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17337.86 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2001.68 pointsin the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.66 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.66 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 6, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.  The most likely scenario would be for the SPX to move down to the 2370 to 2400 range during the summer and then move higher towards year end.  But a lot depends upon what, if anything, the administration does or does not do regarding North Korea. News – and the timing of news – does matter.

 

The daily  model is neutral today.  I expect to see somewhat of the reverse of yesterday, today, with the SPX opening higher and then slinking lower as the day progresses – but that could be changed by news. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% short.  Our stop yesterday was at SPX 2461, and I don’t want to change that.

 

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, July 17, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, July 14, 2017

The SPX advanced 11.44 points Friday to close at 2459.27.   TOT daily traders came into the day 200% short but then covered that position and simultaneously went 200% long and took profits on that position on the close.

 

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17343.08 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2000.34 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.67 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.67 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 6, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.  The most likely scenario would be for the SPX to move down to the 2370 to 2400 range during the summer and then move higher towards year end.  But a lot depends upon what, if anything, the administration does or does not do regarding North Korea.  News – and the timing of news – does matter.

 

The market exhausted itself with solid gains on WednesdayThursday and Friday.  The daily model is bearish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 2458 stop.  If the SPX advances to 2562 before declining to 2458, raise the entry sell stop to SPX 2460.  And for each additional 2 point advance, if it occurs, raise the entry sell stop by an equivalent 2 points.  Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.

 

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, July 14, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, July 14, 2017

The SPX advanced 4.58 points yesterday to close at 2447.83.   TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 2441.49 and have carried the position overnight twice and into today.

 

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17340.88 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1988.90 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.72 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.72 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 6, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.  The most likely scenario would be for the SPX to move down to the 2370 to 2400 range during the summer and then move higher towards year end.  But a lot depends upon what, if anything, the administration does or does not do regarding North Korea.  News – and the timing of news – does matter.

 

I expect to see the market continue yesterday’s strength into early trading today, then lose steam, and then move higher again.  TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% short.  Maintain the protective buy stop on the position at SPX 2453.  If the SPX declines to 2444, lower the buy stop to SPX 2446, and for each additional 2 point decline, lower the buy stop by an equivalent 2 points.  If and when you cover the short, go 200% long at the same time.  If and when you go long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, July 12, 2017

The SPX declined 1.9 points yesterday to close at 2425.53 in a session that saw the index vacillate between up and down most of the afternoon.   TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 2428 and covered at the same price for a breakeven.

 

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17353.46 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1966.60 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.82 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.82 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 6, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.  The most likely scenario would be for the SPX to move down to the 2370 to 2400 range during the summer and then move higher towards year end.  But a lot depends upon what, if anything, the administration does or does not do regarding North Korea.  News – and the timing of news – does matter.

 

The SPX-based daily model is absolutely dead-neutral today.  Stand aside.

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, July 10, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, July 10, 2017

The SPX advanced 15.43 points Friday to close at 2425.18, reversing 68% of Thursday’s decline.   TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

 

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17352.32 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1966.25 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.83 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.83 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 6, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.  The most likely scenario would be for the SPX to move down to the 2370 to 2400 range during the summer and then move higher towards year end.  But a lot depends upon what, if anything, the administration does or does not do regarding North Korea.  News – and the timing of news – does matter.

 

The odds favor a mixed market today with certain sectors doing considerably better than others.  As to the SPX, I expect to see strength in the morning, followed by weakness later in the day.  We will stand aside for now, but I will be looking for a good place to short later in the day.

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, July 7, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, July 7, 2017

The SPX declined 22.79 points yesterday to close at 2409.75.   TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 2420 and sold the position at the exact same price, SPX 2420, for a breakeven.

 

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17352.32 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1950.82 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.89 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.89 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 6, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.  The most likely scenario would be for the SPX to move down to the 2370 to 2400 range during the summer and then move higher towards year end.  But a lot depends upon what, if anything, the administration does or does not do regarding North Korea.  News – and the timing of news – does matter.

 

The daily model is solidly neutral today, with bulls and bears each having equal ammunition.  My “gut” is that the market will rise a little today, but my indicators are neutral, and we will stand aside.

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, July 6, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, July 6, 2017

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17352.32 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1973.61 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.79 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.79 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 6, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.  The most likely scenario would be for the SPX to move down to the 2370 to 2400 range during the summer and then move higher towards year end.  But a lot depends upon what, if anything, the administration does or does not do regarding North Korea.  News – and the timing of news – does matter.

 

And on the subject of North Korea, one question comes to mind: Can the United States legally assassinate Kim Jong Un?  The answer is, practically speaking, no one would object.  From a legal perspective, in 1976, President Ford issued Executive Order 11905 which banned “political assassination.” President Carter reaffirmed that in 1978.  And in 1981, President Reagan, via Executive Order 12333, reiterated the assassination prohibition.  However, that did not stop Reagan from dropping bombs on Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi’s home in 1986 in retaliation for the bombing of a Berlin discotheque frequented by U.S. troops.  And in 2001, via Executive Order 13470, President Bush said the presidential directive banning assassinations would not prevent the United States from acting in self-defense.  Lawyers at the CIA have opined that the directive does not apply to wartime – and legally, the Korean War never ended with a peace treaty, only a cease fire.  Even without canceling prior Executive Orders (which the President could do in an instant, anyway) the President may defend an assassination through the principles of self-defense inherent in international law.  And since Kim Jong Un has clearly stated his goal of harming the United States, any assassination action would be easily defended as legal.  That’s my opinion – and if any reader is a constitutional law specialist and would like to disagree, I would be glad to publish a counter-opinion.

 

I expect to see the market open a little softer and then move higher.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at SPX 2434 stop.  If the SPX declines to 2428 before advancing to 2434, lower the buy stop to SPX 2430, and for each additional 2 point decline, if it occurs, lower the stop by an equivalent 2 points.  Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, June 30, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, June 30, 2017

The SPX declined 20.99 points yesterday to close at 2419.70, reversing Wednesday’s 21.31 point gain.   TOT daily traders took a 6 point loss (times 2 units) before moving to the sidelines.

 

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17339.14 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1960.77 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.84 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.84 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 10, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.

 

Today’s most likely scenario will be some strength in the early going, followed by weakness later in the session.  We will stand aside for the time being, but I will be looking for a place to go short.

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, June 28, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, June 28, 2017

The SPX declined 19.69 points yesterday to close at 2419.38.   TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

 

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17372.52 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1960.45 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.86 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.86 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 10, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.

 

I expect to see the market open higher and then sell off.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 2416 stop (a level I don’t expect to be seen in the first few minutes of trading).  If the SPX advances to 2422 (as would not surprise me) before declining to 2416, raise the entry sell stop to SPX 2420.  And for each additional 2 point advance, if it occurs, raise the entry sell stop by an equivalent 2 points.  Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, June 27, 2017

The SPX advanced .77 point yesterday to close at 2439.07.   TOT daily traders went 300% long on the opening and took a modest loss, selling on the close.

 

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17372.52cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1980.14 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.77to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.77 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 10, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.

 

The daily model is slightly bearish today, but not by enough to warrant going short, and nothing on the Index Models is strongly bearish.  We will stand aside.

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, June 26, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, June 26, 2017

The SPX advanced 3.8 points Friday to close at 2438.30.   TOT daily traders came into the session 200% long and sold the position at SPX 2435.

 

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17385.27cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1979.37 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.78to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.78 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 10, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.

 

The daily model is solidly bullish today.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at the market.  Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position

Continue reading >
0 Shares

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, June 22, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, June 21, 2017

The SPX declined 1.42 points yesterday to close at 2435.61.   TOT daily traders went 200% long on the opening at SPX 2439.31 and have carried the position overnight and into today.

 

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17386.49cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1976.68 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.80to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.80 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 10, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.

 

The daily model is bullish today.  TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% long.  Maintain the protective sell stop on the position at SPX 2414.92.

 

Continue reading >
0 Shares
1 2 3 4
Page 1 of 4