All posts in "Turov"

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, April 28, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, April 28, 2017.

The SPX advanced 1.32 points yesterday to close at 2388.77.  TOT daily traders went 100% long at SPX 2390 sold the unleveraged position on the close.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17201.11 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1929.84 pointsin the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.91 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.91 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

After the close yesterday, Amazon and Alphabet both announced earnings results that were very well received by the market.  Resultantly, the market is likely to open strongly this morning.  However, that is likely to be the high for the day.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at the market at9:35 a.m., five minutes after the opening.  Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, April 27, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, April 27, 2017

The SPX declined 1.16 points yesterday to close at 2387.45.  TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 2395.06 and covered the short at the SPX 2387.45 close.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17202.34 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1928.52 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.92 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.92 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The SPX-based daily model is slightly bullish today.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 100% long at SPX 2390 stop.  If you go long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, April 26, 2017

The SPX advanced 14.46 points yesterday to close at 2388.61.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

For the year, 2017 to date so far, TOT daily traders have gained 159.86 cumulative SPX points, more than the 109.86 point gain in the SPX itself.  That +1.5 outperformance ratio is far below our long-term ratio of more than +8.91 to one, but outperforming a bull market is much more difficult than outperforming a bear market, in my opinion.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17187.12 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1929.68 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.91 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.91 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The SPX-based daily model is neutral today, but if the SPX rallies to 2395, it becomes an attractive short for a 200% position.  If you go short at 2395, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, April 25, 2017

The SPX advanced 25.46 points yesterday to close at 2374.15.  All of the gain was a function of the French election.  On yesterday’s hotline, I said, “it would not surprise me if the overnight futures jump ended up being ‘it’ for the day.”  And indeed, all of the day’s gain did indeed occur on the opening.  For example, the SPX ETF, SPY, opened at 237.18 and closed at 237.17.   TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session as we chose not to guess about the outcome of the French election, but standing on the sidelines once the market gapped open cost us not a penny.

For the year, 2017 to date so far, TOT daily traders have gained 159.86 cumulative SPX points, more than the 109.86 point gain in the SPX itself.  That +1.5 outperformance ratio is far below our long-term ratio of more than +8.97 to one, but outperforming a bull market is much more difficult than outperforming a bear market, in my opinion.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17187.12 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1915.22points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.97 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.97to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The daily model shows that the odds of the market advancing versus declining are equal.  However, the Index Models show that the magnitude of a potential decline exceeds the magnitude of a potential advance.  It’s not enough of an edge to risk much capital.   We will stay on the sidelines again today, although I wouldn’t argue with anyone who wanted to take a small short position.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, April 21, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, April 21, 2017

The SPX advanced 17.67 points yesterday to close at 2355.84.  TOT daily traders came into the session 300% long and took profits on the close.

For the week so far, TOT daily traders have gained 87.33 cumulative SPX points, more than erasing last week’s loss.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17175.02 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1896.91 pointsin the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.05 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.05 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The daily model is bearish today, and I look for the market to decline – although in the absence of significant negative news, I doubt it will decline by much.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 2355 stop.  If the If the SPX advances to 2360 before declining to 2355, raise your entry sell short stop to SPX 2358, and for each additional 2 point advance, if it occurs, raise the entry sell short stop by an equivalent 2 points.  Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.  If still short as we approach the close, cover the position on the close.

Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, April 20, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, April 20, 2017

The SPX declined 4.02 points yesterday to close at 2338.17 after being up sharply in the early going.  TOT daily traders went 300% long on the opening and have held the position overnight and into today.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17122.01 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1879.24 pointsin the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.11 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.11 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The daily model is bullish today, and I look for the market to advance.  TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% long from SPX 2346.79.  Our 1% protective sell stop on the position is at SPX 2323.32. (NOTE:  If you are risking more than 1% times 3 – i.e., 3% – of your capital on this trade, you’re overtrading.)

If not stopped out, and if the SPX is closing below 2340.67, hold the position overnight and into Friday.  Otherwise, sell the position on the close.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, April 19, 2017

This is a 3:38 intraday update of Turov on Timing for Wednesday, April 19, 2017
The market started the day strongly and has since given back all of its gains and then some.  TOT daily traders went 300% long on today’s opening.  Maintain the 1% protective sell stop on the position.  If not stopped out, carry the position overnight and into tomorrow, where the odds favor a reversal of today’s decline.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, April 18, 2017

The SPX advanced 20.06 points yesterday to close at 2349.01.  TOT daily traders came into the session 300% long and had a gain on the day of 60.18 cumulative points, selling the position on the close.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17147.87 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1890.08 pointsin the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.07 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.07 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

We have an interesting situation today.  One important thing that TIG does is to compartmentalize market activity into analyzable components.  Slicing the onion (compartmentalizing) broadly, there are 102 cases which are indicative of tomorrow’s most likely direction, and the net result is pretty neutral.  Slicing it thinner, and the result is slightly bullish (which corresponds nicely with the general tendency for the market to advance on Tax Day).  But slicing it still thinner results in a mere five cases, ALL of which saw the market decline, and three of those five were sharp declines.  Such a discrepancy is highly unusual.  So is the daily model bullish or bearish?  My best guess (intelligent or otherwise) is bearish… BUT I don’t have a lot of confidence in a statistical universe of only five – especially considering that a less precisely sliced onion would be bullish.  The bearish argument is that a ratio of 0:5 is impressive.  However, considering that since TOT started in 1993, 42.3% of the market’s entire 1890.08 net SPX point advance occurred on Tuesdays (799.73 cumulative net SPX points) AND the strong upward bias on Tax Day, going short is not compelling.  We will stand aside, watching and learning.

 

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, April 14, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, April 14, 2017

COMMENTARY RE NEXT TRADING DAY:  The market should advance Monday, in the absence of news.
OVERNIGHT INTO THE NEXT TRADING DAY: For extremely sophisticated professional investors, my recommendation for an overnight trade (today’s close through the next trading day’s opening) is: Buy QQQ
FULL DAY ON THE NEXT TRADING DAY: For extremely sophisticated professional investors, my recommendation for A ONE day trade (today’s close through the next trading day’s close) is:  Buy QQQ
PARTIAL DAY ON THE NEXT TRADING DAY: Based on my Index models at the present time (which is still prior to closing data results), the following are the odds of the various indices being up versus down from tonight’s close through 10:45 a.m. on the next trading day:
NDX 55:45
SPX 55:45
RUT 45:55
DJII 50:50
SPX-BASED DAILY MODEL ADVANCE LOOK: While it is impossible to calculate the Turov on Timing Daily Model until several hours after the close, in a news-neutral environment, the SPX-based daily model is bullish for the next trading day.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, April 12, 2017

The SPX declined 3.38 points yesterday to close at 2353.78.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the day but went 200% long on the close and have carried that position overnight and into today.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17160.53 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1894.85 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.06 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.06 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The daily model is bullish today.  TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% long.  Increase that by going an additional 100% long at the market.  Then use a 1% protective stop on the entire 300% position, basis the price of this morning’s purchase.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, April 6, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, April 6, 2017

The SPX declined 7.21 points yesterday to close at 2352.95.  TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 2373 and took profits at SPX 2263.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17162.15 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1894.02 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.06 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.06 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The daily model is bearish today.  However, the expected decline is about 8-12 points, and with overnight futures trading down about 10 points as I write this, shorting into that amount of weakness seems ill-advised.  We will stand aside.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, April 5, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, April 5, 2017

The SPX advanced 1.32 point yesterday to close at 2360.16.  TOT daily traders went 300% long on the opening at SPX 2354.76 and took profits on the close.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17142.15 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1901.23 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.02 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.02 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The daily model is bearish today, but not by much.   We will stand aside for the time being.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, April 4, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, April 4, 2017

The SPX declined 3.88 points yesterday to close at 2358.84.  TOT daily traders went 300% long on the opening and were stopped out with a 15 point per unit loss.  I can’t tell you how angry I am at myself for recommending a 15 point stop rather than the typical 1% stop that would have substantially mitigated the damage.  Aaagh!  (But as I used to tell my young sons, years ago, when they agonized over a mistake, “What happened yesterday is as much history as the Peloponnesian War.”  Today is a new day.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17126.07 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1899.91 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.01 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.01 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The daily model is bullish today, but the Index Models indicate that most of the anticipated gains will come early on.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 2360 stop or SPX 2356 limit or at the market at 9:45, whichever of those 3 events comes first.  Once long, initially use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.  If still long at 10:45, and if the SPX is more than 5 points away from the stop, raise the stop to 5 points below the 10:45 price.

If still long as we near the close, I’ll have a late session intraday update.  If not still long, I’ll update in 24 hours.  Thanks for the opportunity to be of service.

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The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, April 3, 2017

The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, April 3, 2017

The SPX advanced 6.93 points yesterday to close at 2362.72.  Intermediate Term traders were long for the session.  TOT daily traders went 200% short on the SPX 2364.82 opening and then covered the position profitably on the close at SPX 2362.72

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17171.07 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1903.79 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.02 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.02 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

On Friday afternoon’s Turov on Overnight Possibilities I said, “The first trading day of April is usually strong, and, in the absence of bad news, I don’t think this year will be an exception.”  That is indeed the case.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 2365 limit or better.  (Please note that this is NOT a stop recommendation; rather it is a recommendation to buy at SPX 2365 or lower.)  If and when you go long, use a 15 point protective sell stop on the position.

If still long as we approach the close, if the SPX is up on the day by more than 4 points, take your profit on the close; otherwise, carry the position overnight and into Tuesday.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 26 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

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The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, March 31, 2017

The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, March 31, 2017

The SPX advanced 6.93 points yesterday to close at 2368.06.  Intermediate Term traders were long for the session.  TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 2361, and then took a profit on the close.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17166.87 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1909.13 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.99 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.99 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

On yesterday’s message, I said, the rally is “unlikely to continue into Friday,” and that is confirmed by the daily model’s bearish reading for today.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 2367 stop.  If the SPX advances to 2372 before declining to 2367, raise your entry sell short stop to SPX 2370, and for each additional 2 point advance, if it occurs, raise the entry sell short stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once short, use a 15 point protective buy stop on the position.  If still short as we approach the close, sell the position on the close.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again before the opening of Monday’s session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

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The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, March 30, 2017

The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, March 30, 2017

This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, March 30, 2017

The SPX advanced 2.56 points yesterday to close at 2361.13.  Intermediate Term traders were long, while TOT daily traders went 200% short on the opening and took a small loss on the close.  It was a very mixed market with the Nasdaq Composite up .38% and the Dow Industrials down 20%.  All TIG managed account that permit short selling were 2x short the Dow for a .40% gain in the day.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17152.75 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1902.20 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.02 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.02 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The strength in tech stocks that powered the Nasdaq higher yesterday is likely to continue today.  The  daily model is bullish today.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at SPX 2362 stop.  If the SPX declines to 2359 before advancing to 2362, lower the buy stop to SPX 2361, and for each additional 2 point decline, if it occurs, lower the stop by an equivalent 2 points.  Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.  If still long as we approach the close, sell the position on the close as the rally is unlikely to continue into Friday.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

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The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, March 29, 2017

The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, March 29, 2017

This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, March 29, 2017

The SPX advanced 16.98 points yesterday to close at 2358.57.  Intermediate Term trades were long, while TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.  Yesterday, I wrote, “All four of my index models forecast an advance today.  Unfortunately, my daily model forecasts just the opposite, a decline today.  When this disparity occurs, so far, I have been unable to discern any pattern to give me a heads-up on which is more likely to be correct.  I “feel” bullish – but I don’t act on feelings.”  With hindsight, bullish would have been a good call.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17161.93 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1899.64 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.03 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.03 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The daily model is bearish today.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 2357 stop.  If the SPX advances to 2362 before declining to 2357, raise your entry sell short stop to SPX 2360, and for each additional 2 point advance, if it occurs, raise the entry sell short stop by an equivalent 2 points.  Once short, use a 15 point protective buy stop on the position.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later during today’s session.

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The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, March 28, 2017

The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, March 28, 2017

This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, March 28, 2017

The SPX declined 2.39 points yesterday to close at 2341.59.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17161.93 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1882.66 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.12 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.12 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The SPX declined yesterday for the seventh time in the past eight sessions.  All four of my index models forecast an advance today. Unfortunately, my daily model forecasts just the opposite, a decline today.  When this disparity occurs, so far, I have been unable to discern any pattern to give me a heads-up on which is more likely to be correct.  I “feel” bullish – but I don’t act on feelings.  Reluctantly, we will stand aside.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

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The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, March 24, 2017

The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, March 24, 2017

This is Turov on Timing for Friday, March 24, 2017

The SPX declined 2.49 points yesterday to close at 2345.96.  TOT daily traders came into Thursday’s session 200% short and went an additional 200% short on Thursday’s opening for an average price of SPX 2347.21.  We than covered the position a few minutes before the close at SPX 2347 for a negligible profit on the day.  We are currently flat.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17161.93 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1887.03 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.09 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.09 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model has upticked from bearish to bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

Using Rumsfeld’s categorization, today is likely to give us a resolution to a “known unknown” – i.e., the vote on the health care bill.  The daily model is bullish, but it doesn’t matter as the news will override it.  Similarly, while I never go against the daily model, I sometimes override it when a “known unknown” is present.  In other words, risk is simply too high, we have had a very profitable week, and I see the odds of the “known unknown” resolution being impossible to measure.  We will stand aside.

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The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, March 23, 2017

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The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, March 23, 2017

Another good day for the home team as the SPX advanced 4.43 points yesterday to close at 2348.45.  TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 2344 and took profits on the close.  For the week so far, TOT daily traders are up 100.95 points, compared  to a decline in the SPX of 29.80 points.  Although news can always change that, I foresee that improving today as the risk is high of another significant decline in the market, and TOT daily traders are already short, having gone 200% short on Wednesday’s close and then carrying that position overnight and into today.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17161.09 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1889.52 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.08 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.08 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 22, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model is bearish.  HOWEVER, if the SPX declines today, the odds of the Model turning bullish before the week is over is high – but it is not a certainty.

Subject (as always) to the vagaries of news, the market will probably decline today, possibly by a lot.  TOT daily traders are already 200% short and are advised to go an additional 200% short at SPX 2346 stop.  If the SPX advances to 2350 before declining to 2346, raise the entry sell short stop to SPX 2348, and for each subsequent 2 point advance, if it occurs, raise the entry sell short stop by an equivalent 2 points.  Once short the incremental new position, use a 1% buy stop on each of the two 200% positions, calculated separately.  (In the extremely unlikely case that the SPX rises 1% before the new position is taken, then use a ½% stop on the old position, basis the price of the new position, and use a 1% stop on the new position – but I consider that an extremely unlikely possibility.)

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