All posts in "Turov"

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Friday, September 22, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Friday, September 22, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX declined 7.64 points yesterday to close at 2500.60.  TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 2503.87 on Monday and took profits yesterday at SPX 2500.60.  For the week so far, the SPX is up 0.37 points and TOT daily traders are up 5.34 points.

GOLD: Two weeks ago, after gold reached its 1350 objective, I recommended selling gold and going short. Yesterday, gold closed at 1292.03, a decline of 4% in a short period of time.  That’s probably “it” for now.  My gold model has now reversed to “buy” and a move to new 2017 highs before the end of the year is likely.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17483.48 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2041.67 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.56 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.56 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 13, 2017) The Intermediate Term model has remains neutral.  I expect the market to have a severe selloff sometime relatively soon – but not yet.

The directional component of the daily model is neutral today, and the risk component is quite high.  We will stand aside and not risk capital.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Thursday, September 21, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Thursday, September 21, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX advanced 1.59 points yesterday to close at 2508.24 after being down most of the day.  TOT daily traders were 200% short for the session and had a small loss on paper, prior to carrying the position overnight and into today.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17469.40 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of2049.31 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.52 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.52 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 13, 2017) The Intermediate Term model has remains neutral.  I expect the market to have a severe selloff sometime relatively soon – but not yet.

The daily model is bearish today.  TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% short. Maintain the 1% protective stop on the position.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Tuesday, September 19, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX advanced 3.64 points yesterday to close at 2503.87.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session until the close.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17478.14 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of2044.94 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.55 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.55 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 13, 2017) The Intermediate Term model has remains neutral.  I expect the market to have a severe selloff sometime relatively soon – but not yet.

The daily model is bearish today.  TOT daily traders went 200% short on yesterday’s 2503.87 close. Use a 1% protective stop on the position.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Monday, September 18, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Monday, September 18, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX advanced 4.61 points Friday to close at 2500.23.  TOT daily traders came into the session 300% short and were stopped out at SPX 2500, shortly before the close.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17478.14 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of2041.30 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.56 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.56 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 13, 2017) The Intermediate Term model has remains neutral.  I expect the market to have a severe selloff sometime relatively soon – but not yet.

The daily model is slightly bearish today although we may see some continued strength early on.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 2412 limit.  If you go short, use a protective 1% buy stop.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Friday, September 15, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Friday, September 15, 2017

by Daniel Turov

This is Turov on Timing for Friday, September 15, 2017

The SPX declined 2.75 points yesterday to close at 2495.62.  TOT daily traders went 300% short on yesterday’s opening and have held the position overnight and into today.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17491.97 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of2036.69 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.59 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.59 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 13, 2017) The Intermediate Term model has remains neutral.  I expect the market to have a severe selloff sometime relatively soon – but not yet.

The daily model is neutral today although we may see some continued weakness early on.  TOT daily traders are 300% short.  Lower the protective buy stop on the position to a rather tight SPX 2500.  If the SPX declines to 2490, lower the stop again to 2495, and for each additional 5 point decline, lower the stop by an additional 5 points.  If the SPX declines to 2481, take your profit there.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Thursday, September 14, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Thursday, September 14, 2017

by Daniel Turov

This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, September 14, 2017

First, a correction of yesterday’s TOT:  I said the SPX closed Tuesday at 2488.11.  That actually wasMonday’s closing level.  The SPX closed Tuesday at 2496.48.  All calculated numbers were, however, correct.

The SPX advanced 1.89 points yesterday to close at 2498.37.  TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 2491.94 on Tuesday, carried the position overnight and into yesterday, and then sold the position on yesterday’s close.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17495.15 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2039.44 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.58 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.58 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 13, 2017) The Intermediate Term model has remains neutral.  I expect the market to have a severe selloff sometime relatively soon – but not yet.

The daily model is bearish today.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 2498 stop.  If the SPX advances to 2502 before reaching 2498, raise the entry sell stop to 2500, and for each additional 2 point advance, raise the entry sell stop by an equivalent 2 points.  Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.

The daily model for Friday will be a continuation of today’s direction.  So, if the SPX is down today, as expected, hold the short position overnight and into Friday.  On the other hand, if the SPX is up today, cover the short on the close.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Wednesday, September 13, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX advanced 8.37 points yesterday to close at 2488.11.  TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 2491.94 and have carried the position overnight and into today.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17482.29 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2029.18 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.62 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.62 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 13, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains neutral.  I expect the market to have a severe selloff sometime relatively soon – but not yet.

The daily model is bullish.  TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% long.  Maintain the protective sell stop on the position at SPX 2467.02.  If the SPX advances today (as expected) by any amount, or is below 2480 as we approach the close, sell the position.  Otherwise, maintain it and carry it overnight and into tomorrow.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Tuesday, September 12, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX advanced 26.68 points yesterday to close at 2488.11.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session as our limit for buying was exceeded and never touched.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17482.29 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2029.18 pointsin the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.62 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.62 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

Intermediate Term model: The Intermediate Term model has upticked to neutral as a result of yesterday’s strength.

The daily model is bullish, and as much as I dislike buying into strength, I expect more upside today. TOT daily trader are advised to go 200% long at SPX 2489 stop or at SPX 2481 limit, whichever comes first.  If you go long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

Continue reading >
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Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Monday, September 11, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Monday, September 11, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX declined 3.67 points Friday to close at 2461.43.  TOT daily traders were long for the session and sold the position on the close.

In the September Turov on Gold, I said that 1350 was my objective on gold, and that level was reached on Friday. As a result, the gold model reversed to bearish on Friday’s close.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17482.29 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2002.50 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.73 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.73 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/hersingle term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

Intermediate Term model: (The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 5, 2017.)  On August 1, with the SPX at 2470.30, I forecast that the market would be soft over the subsequent month, and it has been, trading in a range of 2480 to 2417, and closing yesterday at 2457.  As long as the SPX closes below 2485, the Intermediate Term model must be considered bearish.

At 3:10 Friday, I recommended holding the long position over the weekend and into today, but at 3:35, I had the following to say: “Re-thinking my message from 20 minutes ago, my advice is unchanged EXCEPT that, while the daily model is expected to be bullish Monday, I really don’t want the hurricane risk exposure, and if still long as we approach the close, my recommendation is to get out of the market and into cash.  I must note that the “unbiased” approach would be to carry the position over the weekend, but candidly, I find it uncharacteristically difficult to be unbiased, considering the magnitude of the hurricane risk.  As always, readers may follow this advice or not, as they choose.”  With Irma not as furious as had been expected, and futures higher overnight as a result, I once again question the wisdom of applying any emotions to any decisions my data has made; it rarely works out well.

In any event, the news-neutral daily model is neutral, as had been expected, and I’d rather be long today than short but I don’t want to pay up too much.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at SPX 2465 limit or less.  If you go long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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The Return of Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Friday, September 8, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Friday, September 9, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX declined 0.44 points yesterday to close at 2465.10.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session and missed absolutely nothing.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17489.63 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2006.17 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.72 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.72 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

Intermediate Term model: (The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 5, 2017.)  On August 1, with the SPX at 2470.30, I forecast that the market would be soft over the subsequent month, and it has been, trading in a range of 2480 to 2417, and closing yesterday at 2457.  As long as the SPX closes below 2485, the Intermediate Term model must be considered bearish.

Yesterday, I said, “The daily model is slightly bullish today, and in the absence of news, the market is likely to struggle back a bit.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 100% long at 2458 limit or lower.”  While we were right in anticipating an advance, the 2459.20 low in the SPX was just a tad higher than our entry recommendation price, and hence we were on the sidelines for the session.

TOT daily traders went 200% long on the close yesterday and have carried the position overnight and into today.  Use a protective sell stop at SPX 2447 on the position.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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The Return of Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Thursday, September 7, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Thursday, September 7, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX advanced 7.69 points yesterday to close at 2465.54.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

All Turov Investment Group managed accounts were 100% invested in the Energy Sector Fund yesterday, and Turov on Overnight Possibilitiessubscribers were advised to go long the Energy Sector Fund on Friday’s close.  Both groups enjoyed profits yesterday as the Energy Sector Fund gained 1.65% on Wednesday, compared to a gain of .31% in the SPX.

Advertisement: Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17489.63 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2006.61 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.72 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.72 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

Intermediate Term model: (The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 5, 2017.)  On August 1, with the SPX at 2470.30, I forecast that the market would be soft over the subsequent month, and it has been, trading in a range of 2480 to 2417, and closing yesterday at 2457.  As long as the SPX closes below 2485, the Intermediate Term model must be considered bearish.

Yesterday, I said, “The daily model is slightly bullish today, and in the absence of news, the market is likely to struggle back a bit.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 100% long at 2458 limit or lower.”  While we were right in anticipating an advance, the 2459.20 low in the SPX was just a tad higher than our entry recommendation price, and hence we were on the sidelines for the session.

While the daily model is modestly bullish today, the risk component of the daily model is sky-high (meaning the possibility of the forecast being wrong is significant). When the risk component is this high, we always stand aside (as boring as that might be) and we await a better opportunity.

Interesting: Regardless which way the SPX goes today, it is highly likely to reverse that move tomorrow!  So…,  if the SPX is up on today’s close, go 200% short on the close and carry the position overnight and into tomorrow, or if the SPX is down on today’s close, go 200% long on the close and carry the position overnight and intotomorrow!

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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The Return of Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Wednesday, September 6, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Tuesday, September 5, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX declined 18.7 points yesterday to close at 2457.85.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

ADVERTISEMENT:  All Turov Investment Group managed accounts were 100% invested in the Energy Sector Fund yesterday, and Turov on Overnight Possibilities subscribers were advised to go long the Energy Sector Fund on Friday’s close.  Both groups enjoyed profits yesterday as the Energy Sector Fund gained .55% on the day, compared with a nasty loss in the major stock averages.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17489.63 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1998.92 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.75 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.75 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

Intermediate Term model: (The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 6, 2017.)  On August 1, with the SPX at 2470.30, I forecast that the market would be soft over the subsequent month, and it has been, trading in a range of 2480 to 2417, and closing yesterday at 2457.  As long as the SPX closes below 2485, the Intermediate Term model must be considered bearish.

The daily model is slightly bullish today, and in the absence of news, the market is likely to struggle back a bit.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 100% long at 2458 limit or lower.  If you go long, use a 1% protective stop on the position.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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Finally, The Return of Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Tuesday, September 5, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Tuesday, September 5, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX advanced 4.9 points Friday to close at 2476.55.  TOT daily traders went 100% long on the opening and took profits on the close.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17489.63 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain ofc2017.62 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.67 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.67 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017 with the SPX at 2470.30.)  Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now.  I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this medium term bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market. (Note: This paragraph will be updated in our report tomorrow.)

The big news over the weekend was the hydrogen bomb detonation in North Korea.  It’s no surprise that stock futures have been down in overnight trading.  But the last time that futures declined in response to unexpected North Korean actions (the fly-over Japan), the market bounced back, closing higher on the day.  With the daily model modestly bullish today, the odds favor that bounce-back happening again – but unlike the famous saying, history rarely repeats itself.  Acknowledging that news will be more important than the daily model, and acknowledging that we don’t know what that news will be, we will stand aside.

POLITICAL COMMENTARY ON HOW TO END THE NORTH KOREAN CRISIS:

In the aftermath of the probable development of a North Korean hydrogen bomb, President Donald Trump tweeted that the U.S. is considering “stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea” and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin is reportedly drafting a harsher sanctions package.  If Trump follows through, the economic damage to China and its banking system could be massive.  The health of the Chinese financial system is closely-watched by the so-called Chinese Communist Party as Chinese banks hold more than 90 percent of the country’s total assets.  All big four state-owned banks in China have continually increased their presence in the U.S., where their operations now include providing loans, issuing bonds and financing trade activities.  Bilateral trade between China and the U.S. could screech to a halt.

China’s primary concern is of a unified Korea, an ally of the United States, directly on its border.  Its secondary concern is a flood of North Korean immigrants flooding into China.

Imagine if the “great negotiator”, Donald Trump, could convince the Chinese to topple the Kim regime without letting it be known that the U.S. has any part in their decision. The  Korean nuclear program would stop, China would move fissionable material to China, and China would agree to “protect” North Korea from all outsiders, including the United States.  The North Korean people would be protected from invasion, the Korean peninsula would become nuclear-free, the Chinese would have a puppet communist regime in power, the U.S. would end its sanctions on China (or not put them in effect, depending on timing), and everybody would sleep better.

The key: convincing the Chinese government that a Chinese take-over of North Korea would be in their best interest.  It is, but can they be convinced?  That strikes me as the greatest negotiating test of all time.  Are you listening, Mr. Trump?

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, August 2, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, August 2, 2017

The SPX advanced 6.05 points yesterday to close at 2476.35.  TOT daily traders came into the session 400% short and took our loss on the close.  Note that while the major indices advanced yesterday, more than all of the advance occurred on the opening, and for the balance of the day, the market actually declined.

 

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17306.04 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2017.42 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.58 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.58 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017.)  Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now.  I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this medium term bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.

 

The SPX looks pretty good after the first 75 minutes of trading or so.  Stand aside for now.

 

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, August 1, 2017

The SPX declined 3.32 points Friday to close at 2470.30.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17330.14 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of2011.37 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.62 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.62 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017.)  Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now.  I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this medium term bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.

While the first day of any month is usually bullish, the first day of August is generally “ho-hum”.  Overnight futures are up, and I can’t find any news that would explain it.  Best guesses: (1) momentum in the Dow Industrials, even though the vast majority of the recent gains there have been because of strength in Boeing; (2) a belief that the first day of the month “just has to be up” and (3) optimism in General Kelly’s appointment as Chief of Staff and the sense that President Trump has finally realized that he has been elected President and not Emperor, and that delegation of authority is not necessarily a bad thing.  In any event, the daily model is bearish today, with most of the day’s decline due in the afternoon.  TOT daily traders come into today’s session 400% short.  Use a protective buy stop at SPX 2485 on half the position and at SPX 2495 on the other half.

 

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, July 31, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, July 31, 2017

The SPX declined 3.32 points Friday to close at 2472.10.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17327.36 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of2013.17 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.61 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.61 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 19, 2017.)  Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now.  I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.

On June 19, the next to last day of Spring, the SPX closed at 2453.46.  As of Friday, almost half-way through Summer, the SPX closed at 2472.10, 18.7 points – a mere ¾ of 1% – higher.  Not much of a summer rally so far.

The daily model is bearish today, with most of the day’s decline due in the last hour of the day.  TOT daily trader are advised to go 200% short at SPX 2472 stop.  If you go short, use no protective buy stop until 10:45 a.m..  At that time, if you have already gone 200% short, go an additional 200% short at the market.  If you have not already gone short, go 400% short at the market.  After you are 400% short, use a stop 1% above the 10:45 price.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, July 28, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, July 28, 2017

The SPX declined 2.41 points yesterday to close at 2475.42.  TOT daily traders came into the session 200% long and were stopped out at SPX 2470 on the way from the SPX cratering from 2474 down to 2460 before clawing its way back to a minor loss on the day.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17327.36 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2016.49 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.59 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.59 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 19, 2017.)  Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now.  I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.
The daily model is neutral today, but most of the Index models are bearish.  Even though the penultimate day of the month has a favorable seasonal bias, today could be nasty.  The risk is too high to go long, and seasonality makes me disinclined to go short.  We will stand aside, mirroring the position of all TIG managed accounts which are safely ensconced in a money market fund.  While not a forecast, since I don’t have corroborating data, I feel we could see all of July’s gains evaporate during the last two trading days of the month, today and Monday.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, July 27, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, July 27, 2017

The SPX advanced .7 point yesterday to close at 2477.83.  TOT daily traders went 200% long at 2479.14 and have held the position overnight and into tomorrow.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17343.02 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of2018.90 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.59 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.59 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 19, 2017.)  Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now.  I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.

TOT daily traders went 200% long at 2479.14 yesterday and have held the position overnight and into today.  There is a reasonably high probability that the daily model will be bullish on Friday, as well as today, so I’m reluctant to see the position stopped out.  A 1% risk (x 2 units) would be a stop at SPX 2454.35, and that’s the stop we’ll use.  (By the way, if being stopped out at SPX 2454.35 would result in a loss of more than 2% of your account’s value, then, IMHO, you’re over-leveraging.)  If not stopped out, carry the position overnight and into tomorrow.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, July 25, 2017

The SPX declined 2.63 point yesterday to close at 2469.91.  TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 2470.  Our sell stop was also at 2470 (subsequent to an SPX rise to 2473), but as of 3:59 and 59 seconds, the SPX was still above 2370.  In other words, nobody could have known that the SPX would be closing below our stop.  Therefore, as we have done in the past when similar situations occurred, we are not treating it as a stop-out and are considering it as a held-overnight position.

 

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17331.20cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2010.98 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.62to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.62 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 19, 2017.)  Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now.  I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.

 

For reasons explained in the first paragraph of today’s report, TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% long from SPX 2470.  For the time being, use a protective sell stop on the position at SPX 2460.  The daily model is bullish today.  The Index models are slightly bearish for the early going, and they point higher later in the day.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, July 21, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, July 21, 2017

The SPX declined 0.38 point yesterday to close at 2473.83 after being above zero for most of the session.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session and missed absolutely nothing.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17331.38 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2014.90 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.60 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.60 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 19, 2017.)  Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now.  I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.

The daily model is slightly bearish today, but I expect to see the Technology Sector buck the trend.  In the absence of news, I don’t see much to gain by going short the SPX (TOT is an SPX-based service), and we will not take an SPX position.

Misc. note:  The Wall Street Journal reported late Thursday, as follows: “Former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort is being investigated by special counsel Robert Mueller for possible money laundering as part of his investigation into Russian election-meddling, the Wall Street Journal reported late Thursday. The Journal reported both the Senate and House intelligence committees are also investigating Manafort for money laundering. Manafort worked for years as a political consultant for a pro-Russia party in Ukraine, and led Donald Trump’s presidential campaign for about three months last year. In a separate reportWednesday, the New York Times reported Manafort was as much as $17 million in debt to pro-Russia interests before joining Trump’s campaign. The Journal said the New York attorney general and Manhattan district attorney are also looking into Manafort’s real estate transactions for potential money laundering and fraud. Manafort was asked Wednesday to publicly testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee next week to discuss a June 2016 meeting he attended between top Trump advisers and a Russian lawyer who had promised them damaging information on Hillary Clinton.”  And MarketWatch reported, “President Donald Trump and his legal team are discussing his authority to grant pardons and potential ways to undermine special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into Russian election meddling, according to a Washington Post report late Thursday. The Post said Trump has asked about his power to pardon aides, family members and even himself. A president has never tried to pardon himself, and the legal implications of that could be explosive. The Post also reported Trump’s legal team is trying to keep Mueller’s probe from expanding to include the president’s finances, and are collecting potential alleged conflicts of interest they see coming from his office — which could potentially be used to remove Mueller from his position.”  Nasty stuff – unclear if the market will care.

 

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