All posts in "Turov"

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, May 15, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, May 15, 2017

The SPX declined 3.54 points yesterday to close at 2390.90.   TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the fifth session in a row, while followers of our Intermediate Model were short for the session.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17246.77cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1931.97 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.93 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.93 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 10, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.

The daily model is slightly bullish for today, but in the absence of news, the projected advance is likely to be minimal.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at the market.  Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, May 11, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, May 11, 2017

The SPX advanced 2.71 points yesterday to close at 2399.63.   TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the third session in a row.  For these three sessions in the aggregate, the SPX has gained a whopping 0.34 cumulative points.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17246.77 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1940.70points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.89 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.89to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 10, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.

As was the case yesterday, the daily model is dead neutral today.  Both bears and bulls are sleepy, and it will take some significant news to awaken one or the other.  We will snooze along with them; stand aside.  HOWEVER, if the Russell 2000 is up in the morning, then the odds are high that it will  continue that strength in the afternoon, and if so, there is a possibility that speculative interest there will spill into the overall market.  We shall see.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, May 10, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, May 10, 2017

The SPX declined 2.46 points yesterday to close at 2396.92.   TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17246.77 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1937.99points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.90 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.90to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 10, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.

As was the case yesterday, the daily model is dead neutral today.  Both bears and bulls are sleepy, and it will take some significant news to awaken one or the other.  We will snooze along with them; stand aside.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, May 9, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, May 9, 2017

The SPX advanced .09 point yesterday to close at 2399.38.   TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 2392.37 on Friday and took profits on yesterday’s close at SPX 2399.38.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17246.77cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1940.45 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.89 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.89 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 9, 2017.)  On March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346, I wrote, “The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.  Well, even though the SPX declined to a low of 2322 since March 24, its close of less than a point below 2400 on May 8 proves that forecast correct.  However, the moribund nature of the advance has caused the Intermediate Term Model to downtick to bearish.  But while the Intermediate Term Model is now bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.

The daily model is dead neutral today.  Both bears and bulls are sleepy, and it will take some significant news to awaken one or the other.  We will snooze along with them; stand aside.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, May 8, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, May 5, 2017

The SPX advanced 9.77 points Friday to close at 2399.29.   TOT daily traders went 300% long on the SPX 2392.37 opening (on anSPX 2391 stop) and have held the position over the weekend and into today.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17246.59cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1940.36 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.89 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.89 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 8, 2017.)  On March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346, I wrote, “The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.  Well, even though the SPX declined to a low of 2322 since March 24, its close of less than a point below 2400 on May 5 proves that forecast correct.  The SPX is likely to move above 2400 today.  After today, however, while the most likely direction is still northbound, expect to see the advance over the next two months be even more labored than it has been over the past two months.

On Friday, I said, “the market is likely to have its biggest gain of the week,” and it did.

TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% long.  Maintain the position.  Sell the position at SPX 2385 stop or SPX 2411 limit if either level is reached.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, May 5, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, May 5, 2017

The SPX advanced 1.39 points yesterday to close at 2389.52.   TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained17225.83 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1930.59 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.92 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.92 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The market is likely to have its biggest gain of the week, which is a little like describing the Brooklyn Nets’ best game of the season.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 2391 stop.  If the SPX declines to 2386 before advancing to 2391, lower the buy stop to SPX 2388, and for each additional 2 point decline, if it occurs, lower the stop by an equivalent 2 points.  Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.  If still long as we approach the close, and if the SPX is up on the session, hold the position over the weekend and into Monday.  If still long as we approach the close, and if the SPX is down on the session, I’ll have an intraday update at about 3:50 Eastern time.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, May 4, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, May 4, 2017

The SPX declined 3.04 points yesterday to close at 2388.13.   TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

The market has been going nowhere for the past two months.  On March 3, two months ago, the SPX closed at 2383.12, virtually unchanged from yesterday’s close.  The Dow Industrials are down from 21005 to 20958.  The Nasdaq 100 has advanced from 5373 to 5625.  And the Russell 2000 is virtually unchanged from 1394 to 1391.  Even mostly-unrelated gold, as measured by the ETF, GLD, is virtually unchanged from 117.51 to 117.96.  A “buy and hold” investor, unless he was in the Nasdaq, might have just as well spent the past two months with Phil in Punxsutawney.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17225.83 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1929.20 pointsin the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.93 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.93 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk. It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

Although I know this is sounding like a broken record (now that’s an expression that’s headed for extinction) the daily model is neutral today.  Sans news, the market has no internal direction.  Once again,  will stand aside .

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, May 3, 2017

by jarmoluk from Pixabay

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, May 3, 2017

The SPX advanced 2.84 points yesterday to close at 2391.17, but all of the advance was in the last few minutes (in my opinion, because of Apple expected earnings which turned out to be poor compared to expectations).   TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17225.83 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1932.24 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.91 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.91 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

While all Turov Investment Group clients in accounts that permit short selling went 2x short the Dow Industrials on yesterday’s close, the SPX-based daily model is neutral today.  We will stand aside .

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, May 1, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, May 1, 2017

Another good day for the home team as the SPX declined 4.57 points Friday to close at 2384.20.  TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 2389.80 and covered the short profitably on the close.  We also went 200% long on the close and have carried the long position over the weekend and into today.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17217.91 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1925.27 pointsin the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.94 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.94 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The daily model is bullish today.  TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% long. Go an additional 200% long at SPX 2385 stop or SPX 2381 limit, whichever comes first.  Once long, use a protective sell stop at SPX 2357 for the time being.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, April 28, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, April 28, 2017.

The SPX advanced 1.32 points yesterday to close at 2388.77.  TOT daily traders went 100% long at SPX 2390 sold the unleveraged position on the close.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17201.11 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1929.84 pointsin the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.91 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.91 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

After the close yesterday, Amazon and Alphabet both announced earnings results that were very well received by the market.  Resultantly, the market is likely to open strongly this morning.  However, that is likely to be the high for the day.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at the market at9:35 a.m., five minutes after the opening.  Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, April 27, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, April 27, 2017

The SPX declined 1.16 points yesterday to close at 2387.45.  TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 2395.06 and covered the short at the SPX 2387.45 close.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17202.34 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1928.52 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.92 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.92 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The SPX-based daily model is slightly bullish today.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 100% long at SPX 2390 stop.  If you go long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, April 26, 2017

The SPX advanced 14.46 points yesterday to close at 2388.61.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

For the year, 2017 to date so far, TOT daily traders have gained 159.86 cumulative SPX points, more than the 109.86 point gain in the SPX itself.  That +1.5 outperformance ratio is far below our long-term ratio of more than +8.91 to one, but outperforming a bull market is much more difficult than outperforming a bear market, in my opinion.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17187.12 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1929.68 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.91 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.91 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The SPX-based daily model is neutral today, but if the SPX rallies to 2395, it becomes an attractive short for a 200% position.  If you go short at 2395, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, April 25, 2017

The SPX advanced 25.46 points yesterday to close at 2374.15.  All of the gain was a function of the French election.  On yesterday’s hotline, I said, “it would not surprise me if the overnight futures jump ended up being ‘it’ for the day.”  And indeed, all of the day’s gain did indeed occur on the opening.  For example, the SPX ETF, SPY, opened at 237.18 and closed at 237.17.   TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session as we chose not to guess about the outcome of the French election, but standing on the sidelines once the market gapped open cost us not a penny.

For the year, 2017 to date so far, TOT daily traders have gained 159.86 cumulative SPX points, more than the 109.86 point gain in the SPX itself.  That +1.5 outperformance ratio is far below our long-term ratio of more than +8.97 to one, but outperforming a bull market is much more difficult than outperforming a bear market, in my opinion.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17187.12 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1915.22points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.97 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.97to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The daily model shows that the odds of the market advancing versus declining are equal.  However, the Index Models show that the magnitude of a potential decline exceeds the magnitude of a potential advance.  It’s not enough of an edge to risk much capital.   We will stay on the sidelines again today, although I wouldn’t argue with anyone who wanted to take a small short position.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, April 21, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, April 21, 2017

The SPX advanced 17.67 points yesterday to close at 2355.84.  TOT daily traders came into the session 300% long and took profits on the close.

For the week so far, TOT daily traders have gained 87.33 cumulative SPX points, more than erasing last week’s loss.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17175.02 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1896.91 pointsin the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.05 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.05 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The daily model is bearish today, and I look for the market to decline – although in the absence of significant negative news, I doubt it will decline by much.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 2355 stop.  If the If the SPX advances to 2360 before declining to 2355, raise your entry sell short stop to SPX 2358, and for each additional 2 point advance, if it occurs, raise the entry sell short stop by an equivalent 2 points.  Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.  If still short as we approach the close, cover the position on the close.

Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, April 20, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, April 20, 2017

The SPX declined 4.02 points yesterday to close at 2338.17 after being up sharply in the early going.  TOT daily traders went 300% long on the opening and have held the position overnight and into today.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17122.01 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1879.24 pointsin the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.11 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.11 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The daily model is bullish today, and I look for the market to advance.  TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% long from SPX 2346.79.  Our 1% protective sell stop on the position is at SPX 2323.32. (NOTE:  If you are risking more than 1% times 3 – i.e., 3% – of your capital on this trade, you’re overtrading.)

If not stopped out, and if the SPX is closing below 2340.67, hold the position overnight and into Friday.  Otherwise, sell the position on the close.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, April 19, 2017

This is a 3:38 intraday update of Turov on Timing for Wednesday, April 19, 2017
The market started the day strongly and has since given back all of its gains and then some.  TOT daily traders went 300% long on today’s opening.  Maintain the 1% protective sell stop on the position.  If not stopped out, carry the position overnight and into tomorrow, where the odds favor a reversal of today’s decline.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, April 18, 2017

The SPX advanced 20.06 points yesterday to close at 2349.01.  TOT daily traders came into the session 300% long and had a gain on the day of 60.18 cumulative points, selling the position on the close.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17147.87 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1890.08 pointsin the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.07 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.07 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

We have an interesting situation today.  One important thing that TIG does is to compartmentalize market activity into analyzable components.  Slicing the onion (compartmentalizing) broadly, there are 102 cases which are indicative of tomorrow’s most likely direction, and the net result is pretty neutral.  Slicing it thinner, and the result is slightly bullish (which corresponds nicely with the general tendency for the market to advance on Tax Day).  But slicing it still thinner results in a mere five cases, ALL of which saw the market decline, and three of those five were sharp declines.  Such a discrepancy is highly unusual.  So is the daily model bullish or bearish?  My best guess (intelligent or otherwise) is bearish… BUT I don’t have a lot of confidence in a statistical universe of only five – especially considering that a less precisely sliced onion would be bullish.  The bearish argument is that a ratio of 0:5 is impressive.  However, considering that since TOT started in 1993, 42.3% of the market’s entire 1890.08 net SPX point advance occurred on Tuesdays (799.73 cumulative net SPX points) AND the strong upward bias on Tax Day, going short is not compelling.  We will stand aside, watching and learning.

 

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, April 14, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, April 14, 2017

COMMENTARY RE NEXT TRADING DAY:  The market should advance Monday, in the absence of news.
OVERNIGHT INTO THE NEXT TRADING DAY: For extremely sophisticated professional investors, my recommendation for an overnight trade (today’s close through the next trading day’s opening) is: Buy QQQ
FULL DAY ON THE NEXT TRADING DAY: For extremely sophisticated professional investors, my recommendation for A ONE day trade (today’s close through the next trading day’s close) is:  Buy QQQ
PARTIAL DAY ON THE NEXT TRADING DAY: Based on my Index models at the present time (which is still prior to closing data results), the following are the odds of the various indices being up versus down from tonight’s close through 10:45 a.m. on the next trading day:
NDX 55:45
SPX 55:45
RUT 45:55
DJII 50:50
SPX-BASED DAILY MODEL ADVANCE LOOK: While it is impossible to calculate the Turov on Timing Daily Model until several hours after the close, in a news-neutral environment, the SPX-based daily model is bullish for the next trading day.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, April 12, 2017

The SPX declined 3.38 points yesterday to close at 2353.78.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the day but went 200% long on the close and have carried that position overnight and into today.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17160.53 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1894.85 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.06 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.06 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The daily model is bullish today.  TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% long.  Increase that by going an additional 100% long at the market.  Then use a 1% protective stop on the entire 300% position, basis the price of this morning’s purchase.

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, April 6, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, April 6, 2017

The SPX declined 7.21 points yesterday to close at 2352.95.  TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 2373 and took profits at SPX 2263.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17162.15 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1894.02 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.06 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.06 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The daily model is bearish today.  However, the expected decline is about 8-12 points, and with overnight futures trading down about 10 points as I write this, shorting into that amount of weakness seems ill-advised.  We will stand aside.

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