All posts in "Turov"

The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, March 22, 2017

The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, March 22, 2017

A really great day for the home team as the SPX declined 29.45 points yesterday to close at 2344.02.  TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 2378 and covered the short on the close yesterday for a cumulative daily gain of 101.94 points.  That’s a one-day gain of more points than the SPX has gained sinceDecember 8 of last year!

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17147.74 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1885.09 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.10 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.10 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 22, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model is bearish.  HOWEVER, if the SPX advances today and declines again on Thursday, the odds of the Model turning bullish before the week is over is high – but it is not a certainty.

Yesterday, I wrote, “Expect a mixed session today, with the market opening with some modest strength, followed by weakness later in the day.”  That’s exactly what happened with the market opening strong and then selling off sharply.  Within a few minutes of the opening, the SPX was up to almost 2382. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 2378 at 9:55.  We then took profits on the position on the close.

There are lots of reasons to be bearish today: (1) the reported North Korean missile launch towards Japan, (2) the breaking of a string of no-1% selloffs, (3) the failure of Congressional Republicans to unify, (3) high risk of a black swan event as measured by the SKEW Index, (4) the weakness in financial stocks, which are often market leaders, (5) the trouble with passing a replacement to Obamacare, and for good measure, the significant damage done to chart patterns.  Nevertheless, after some carryover weakness from yesterday, I expect the market to do exactly the opposite as yesterday – a soft opening followed by a strong counter rally.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 2346 stop.  If, as expected, the SPX declines to 2340 before reaching 2346, lower the entry buy stop to SPX 2344, and for each additional 2 point decline, lower the entry buy stop by an equivalent 2 points.  If and when you go long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.  If not stopped out prior to 3:00, at 3:00, if the sell stop is more than 5 points below the3:00 price, raise the sell stop to 5 points below the 3:00 price.  If still long as we approach the close, sell the position on the close.  Furthermore, if the SPX is up on the day, as expected, go 200% short on the close and carry the position overnight and into Thursday when I tentatively expect a resumption of Tuesday’s selling.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

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The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, March 21, 2017

The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, March 21, 2017

This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, March 21, 2017

 

The SPX declined 4.78 points yesterday to close at 2373.47.  TOT daily traders went 300% long on Friday’s opening and sold it on the close yesterday.

 

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17045.80 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1914.54 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.90 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.90 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 21, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model is bearish.  HOWEVER, if the SPX is closing at or below 2365, there is a good chance that the Intermediate Term Model will improve its signal on the close.

 

Expect a mixed session today, with the market opening with some modest strength, followed by weakness later in the day.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 2370 stop (which I don’t expect to be seen in the early going).  If, as expected, the SPX advances to 2376 before declining to 2370, raise the entry sell stop to SPX 2374, and for each additional 2 point advance, if it occurs, raise the stop by an equivalent 2 points.  If and when you go short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.  If the SPX is closing down on the day, cover the short on the close; otherwise carry the position overnight and into tomorrow.

 

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

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The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, March 16, 2017

The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, March 16, 2017

This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, March 16, 2017

The SPX advanced 19.81 points yesterday to close at 2385.26.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

IMHO, the gain was mostly a  function of (1) program trading, (2) short covering, and (3) investors putting the cart before the horse.

(1) Program trading can be identified when net ticks (upticks minus downticks) reach very high levels.  While closing net ticks were flat, along with a market that sold off a bit as we approached the close, there were several times during the day when net ticks were in the 800-1000 range.  Money managers’ goal is usually to outperform their competition, more importantly than outperform the market, and so there is a definite herd instinct.

(2) Short covering was apparent, especially in the bond market, where there were huge bets made on higher interest rates (and lower prices).  When the very-expected news came of a raise in the Discount Rate was announced, short sellers ran to cover (“buy on the rumor; sell on the news, or the inverse for short positions, “cover on the news”).

(3) If the stock market is a barometer of future economic developments, then it is illogical to buy the market because of an expectation that raising rates will be of benefit to the economy.  Even if the rally was a function of believing that rates are rising because of an expectation of a better economy, it is still a case of putting the cart before the horse.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained17076.52 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1926.33 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.86 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.86 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated February 3, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model is bearish.  This signal was wrong for a surprising amount of time, but at the present time, it seems more likely than the more commonly held bullish perspective.

After an expected bump upwards this morning, I expect the market to flatten out by the close.  I’d rather be short from shortly after the opening than long, but I don’t see any major move.  Continue to stand aside, as boring as that may seem.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

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The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, March 15, 2017

The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, March 15, 2017

This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, March 15, 2017 – the Ides of March

The SPX declined 8.02 points yesterday to close at 2365.45.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17076.52 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1906.52 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.96 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.96 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated February 3, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model is bearish.  This signal was wrong for a surprising amount of time, but at the present time, it seems more likely than the more commonly held bullish perspective.

I really don’t understand why the market was down 8 points yesterday, and I really don’t understand why it is up 5 points in overnight trading.  In any event, the daily model is slightly bearish today, and most of my index models are slightly bullish.  Neither is dramatic.  The market will likely respond to the Fed today, and since, in total candor, I don’t understand the down 8 and up 5, I also don’t know what to expect today.  If the models were stronger and/or if they were in agreement, I wouldn’t have trouble offering a recommendation, but under the circumstances, I would just be guessing.  Stand aside.

 

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

 

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The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, March 7, 2017

The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, March 6, 2017

The SPX declined 7.81 points yesterday to close at 2375.31.

SPY 03-07-2017

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17099.75 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1924.19 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.89 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.89 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated February 3, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model is bearish.  This signal was wrong for a surprising amount of time, but at the present time, it seems more likely than the more commonly held bullish perspective.

The daily model is bullish today, and in the absence of unknown news, we should see higher prices.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 2376 stop.  If the SPX declines to 2372 before advancing to 2376, lower the entry buy stop to SPX 2394, and for each additional 2 point decline, if it occurs, lower the stop by an equivalent 2 points.  Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Trading Futures, options on futures and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. The lower the day trade margin, the higher the leverage and riskier the trade. Leverage can work for you as well as against you; it magnifies gains as well as losses. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, March 6, 2017

The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, March 6, 2017

This is Turov on Timing for Monday, March 6, 2017

 

The SPX advanced 1.2 points Friday to close at 2383.12 after being down most of the day.  TOT daily traders had a small loss on a short position.  For the week as a whole, TOT daily traders gained 67.30 cumulative SPX points, compared to a 15.78 point gain in the market itself.

 

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17099.75 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1924.19 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.89 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.89 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated February 3, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model is bearish.  This signal was wrong for a surprising amount of time, but at the present time, it seems more likely than the more commonly held bullish perspective.

 

The daily model is neutral today, but it really doesn’t matter.  The market got spooked overnight by the President’s claim that his predecessor bugged him.  There will probably be more news on this before today is over, and the nature of that news will move the market.  Also of concern is the North Korean ballistic test near Japan.  Not knowing the outcome of these stories today, and considering the neutral daily model, coupled with the reality that the market is already down over 10 points in overnight futures trading, we choose not to be gamblers and to instead stand aside.

 

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

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The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, March 3, 2017

The SPX declined 14.04 points yesterday to close at 2381.92, giving back 43% of Wednesday’s gain.

TOT daily traders, who had been 200% long for Wednesday’s big rally, were on the sidelines  yesterday and gave back none of Wednesday’s gains.

Short-Term

The daily model is bearish again today.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 2380 stop; 2377 limit.  If and when you go short, use a protective buy stop at SPX 2404.

Intermediate-Term

The Intermediate Term Model is bearish.  This signal was wrong for a surprising amount of time, but at the present time, it seems more likely than the more commonly held bullish perspective.

Long-Term

The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

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