Finally, The Return of Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Tuesday, September 5, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Tuesday, September 5, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX advanced 4.9 points Friday to close at 2476.55.  TOT daily traders went 100% long on the opening and took profits on the close.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17489.63 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain ofc2017.62 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.67 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.67 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017 with the SPX at 2470.30.)  Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now.  I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this medium term bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market. (Note: This paragraph will be updated in our report tomorrow.)

The big news over the weekend was the hydrogen bomb detonation in North Korea.  It’s no surprise that stock futures have been down in overnight trading.  But the last time that futures declined in response to unexpected North Korean actions (the fly-over Japan), the market bounced back, closing higher on the day.  With the daily model modestly bullish today, the odds favor that bounce-back happening again – but unlike the famous saying, history rarely repeats itself.  Acknowledging that news will be more important than the daily model, and acknowledging that we don’t know what that news will be, we will stand aside.

POLITICAL COMMENTARY ON HOW TO END THE NORTH KOREAN CRISIS:

In the aftermath of the probable development of a North Korean hydrogen bomb, President Donald Trump tweeted that the U.S. is considering “stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea” and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin is reportedly drafting a harsher sanctions package.  If Trump follows through, the economic damage to China and its banking system could be massive.  The health of the Chinese financial system is closely-watched by the so-called Chinese Communist Party as Chinese banks hold more than 90 percent of the country’s total assets.  All big four state-owned banks in China have continually increased their presence in the U.S., where their operations now include providing loans, issuing bonds and financing trade activities.  Bilateral trade between China and the U.S. could screech to a halt.

China’s primary concern is of a unified Korea, an ally of the United States, directly on its border.  Its secondary concern is a flood of North Korean immigrants flooding into China.

Imagine if the “great negotiator”, Donald Trump, could convince the Chinese to topple the Kim regime without letting it be known that the U.S. has any part in their decision. The  Korean nuclear program would stop, China would move fissionable material to China, and China would agree to “protect” North Korea from all outsiders, including the United States.  The North Korean people would be protected from invasion, the Korean peninsula would become nuclear-free, the Chinese would have a puppet communist regime in power, the U.S. would end its sanctions on China (or not put them in effect, depending on timing), and everybody would sleep better.

The key: convincing the Chinese government that a Chinese take-over of North Korea would be in their best interest.  It is, but can they be convinced?  That strikes me as the greatest negotiating test of all time.  Are you listening, Mr. Trump?

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

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About the author

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent. Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients. Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year. Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail. Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing