The Return of Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Thursday, September 7, 2017 – TheTradersWire

The Return of Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Thursday, September 7, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Thursday, September 7, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX advanced 7.69 points yesterday to close at 2465.54.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

All Turov Investment Group managed accounts were 100% invested in the Energy Sector Fund yesterday, and Turov on Overnight Possibilitiessubscribers were advised to go long the Energy Sector Fund on Friday’s close.  Both groups enjoyed profits yesterday as the Energy Sector Fund gained 1.65% on Wednesday, compared to a gain of .31% in the SPX.

Advertisement: Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17489.63 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2006.61 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.72 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.72 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

Intermediate Term model: (The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 5, 2017.)  On August 1, with the SPX at 2470.30, I forecast that the market would be soft over the subsequent month, and it has been, trading in a range of 2480 to 2417, and closing yesterday at 2457.  As long as the SPX closes below 2485, the Intermediate Term model must be considered bearish.

Yesterday, I said, “The daily model is slightly bullish today, and in the absence of news, the market is likely to struggle back a bit.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 100% long at 2458 limit or lower.”  While we were right in anticipating an advance, the 2459.20 low in the SPX was just a tad higher than our entry recommendation price, and hence we were on the sidelines for the session.

While the daily model is modestly bullish today, the risk component of the daily model is sky-high (meaning the possibility of the forecast being wrong is significant). When the risk component is this high, we always stand aside (as boring as that might be) and we await a better opportunity.

Interesting: Regardless which way the SPX goes today, it is highly likely to reverse that move tomorrow!  So…,  if the SPX is up on today’s close, go 200% short on the close and carry the position overnight and into tomorrow, or if the SPX is down on today’s close, go 200% long on the close and carry the position overnight and intotomorrow!

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

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