The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, March 24, 2017

The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, March 24, 2017

This is Turov on Timing for Friday, March 24, 2017

The SPX declined 2.49 points yesterday to close at 2345.96.  TOT daily traders came into Thursday’s session 200% short and went an additional 200% short on Thursday’s opening for an average price of SPX 2347.21.  We than covered the position a few minutes before the close at SPX 2347 for a negligible profit on the day.  We are currently flat.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17161.93 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1887.03 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.09 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.09 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model has upticked from bearish to bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

Using Rumsfeld’s categorization, today is likely to give us a resolution to a “known unknown” – i.e., the vote on the health care bill.  The daily model is bullish, but it doesn’t matter as the news will override it.  Similarly, while I never go against the daily model, I sometimes override it when a “known unknown” is present.  In other words, risk is simply too high, we have had a very profitable week, and I see the odds of the “known unknown” resolution being impossible to measure.  We will stand aside.

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