The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, March 31, 2017

The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, March 31, 2017

The SPX advanced 6.93 points yesterday to close at 2368.06.  Intermediate Term traders were long for the session.  TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 2361, and then took a profit on the close.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17166.87 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1909.13 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.99 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.99 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

On yesterday’s message, I said, the rally is “unlikely to continue into Friday,” and that is confirmed by the daily model’s bearish reading for today.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 2367 stop.  If the SPX advances to 2372 before declining to 2367, raise your entry sell short stop to SPX 2370, and for each additional 2 point advance, if it occurs, raise the entry sell short stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once short, use a 15 point protective buy stop on the position.  If still short as we approach the close, sell the position on the close.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again before the opening of Monday’s session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

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