The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, April 3, 2017

The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, April 3, 2017

The SPX advanced 6.93 points yesterday to close at 2362.72.  Intermediate Term traders were long for the session.  TOT daily traders went 200% short on the SPX 2364.82 opening and then covered the position profitably on the close at SPX 2362.72

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17171.07 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1903.79 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.02 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.02 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

On Friday afternoon’s Turov on Overnight Possibilities I said, “The first trading day of April is usually strong, and, in the absence of bad news, I don’t think this year will be an exception.”  That is indeed the case.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 2365 limit or better.  (Please note that this is NOT a stop recommendation; rather it is a recommendation to buy at SPX 2365 or lower.)  If and when you go long, use a 15 point protective sell stop on the position.

If still long as we approach the close, if the SPX is up on the day by more than 4 points, take your profit on the close; otherwise, carry the position overnight and into Tuesday.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 26 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

About the author

ttw-admin