The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, March 6, 2017

The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, March 6, 2017

This is Turov on Timing for Monday, March 6, 2017


The SPX advanced 1.2 points Friday to close at 2383.12 after being down most of the day.  TOT daily traders had a small loss on a short position.  For the week as a whole, TOT daily traders gained 67.30 cumulative SPX points, compared to a 15.78 point gain in the market itself.


Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17099.75 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1924.19 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.89 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.89 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)


(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.


(The commentary in this paragraph last updated February 3, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model is bearish.  This signal was wrong for a surprising amount of time, but at the present time, it seems more likely than the more commonly held bullish perspective.


The daily model is neutral today, but it really doesn’t matter.  The market got spooked overnight by the President’s claim that his predecessor bugged him.  There will probably be more news on this before today is over, and the nature of that news will move the market.  Also of concern is the North Korean ballistic test near Japan.  Not knowing the outcome of these stories today, and considering the neutral daily model, coupled with the reality that the market is already down over 10 points in overnight futures trading, we choose not to be gamblers and to instead stand aside.


Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

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