The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, March 23, 2017

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The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, March 23, 2017

Another good day for the home team as the SPX advanced 4.43 points yesterday to close at 2348.45.  TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 2344 and took profits on the close.  For the week so far, TOT daily traders are up 100.95 points, compared  to a decline in the SPX of 29.80 points.  Although news can always change that, I foresee that improving today as the risk is high of another significant decline in the market, and TOT daily traders are already short, having gone 200% short on Wednesday’s close and then carrying that position overnight and into today.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17161.09 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1889.52 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.08 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.08 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 22, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model is bearish.  HOWEVER, if the SPX declines today, the odds of the Model turning bullish before the week is over is high – but it is not a certainty.

Subject (as always) to the vagaries of news, the market will probably decline today, possibly by a lot.  TOT daily traders are already 200% short and are advised to go an additional 200% short at SPX 2346 stop.  If the SPX advances to 2350 before declining to 2346, raise the entry sell short stop to SPX 2348, and for each subsequent 2 point advance, if it occurs, raise the entry sell short stop by an equivalent 2 points.  Once short the incremental new position, use a 1% buy stop on each of the two 200% positions, calculated separately.  (In the extremely unlikely case that the SPX rises 1% before the new position is taken, then use a ½% stop on the old position, basis the price of the new position, and use a 1% stop on the new position – but I consider that an extremely unlikely possibility.)

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