The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, March 30, 2017

The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, March 30, 2017

This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, March 30, 2017

The SPX advanced 2.56 points yesterday to close at 2361.13.  Intermediate Term traders were long, while TOT daily traders went 200% short on the opening and took a small loss on the close.  It was a very mixed market with the Nasdaq Composite up .38% and the Dow Industrials down 20%.  All TIG managed account that permit short selling were 2x short the Dow for a .40% gain in the day.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17152.75 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1902.20 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.02 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.02 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The strength in tech stocks that powered the Nasdaq higher yesterday is likely to continue today.  The  daily model is bullish today.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at SPX 2362 stop.  If the SPX declines to 2359 before advancing to 2362, lower the buy stop to SPX 2361, and for each additional 2 point decline, if it occurs, lower the stop by an equivalent 2 points.  Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.  If still long as we approach the close, sell the position on the close as the rally is unlikely to continue into Friday.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

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