The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, March 15, 2017 – TheTradersWire

The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, March 15, 2017

The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, March 15, 2017

This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, March 15, 2017 – the Ides of March

The SPX declined 8.02 points yesterday to close at 2365.45.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17076.52 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1906.52 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.96 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.96 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated February 3, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model is bearish.  This signal was wrong for a surprising amount of time, but at the present time, it seems more likely than the more commonly held bullish perspective.

I really don’t understand why the market was down 8 points yesterday, and I really don’t understand why it is up 5 points in overnight trading.  In any event, the daily model is slightly bearish today, and most of my index models are slightly bullish.  Neither is dramatic.  The market will likely respond to the Fed today, and since, in total candor, I don’t understand the down 8 and up 5, I also don’t know what to expect today.  If the models were stronger and/or if they were in agreement, I wouldn’t have trouble offering a recommendation, but under the circumstances, I would just be guessing.  Stand aside.

 

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

 

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