The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, March 21, 2017

The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, March 21, 2017

This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, March 21, 2017

 

The SPX declined 4.78 points yesterday to close at 2373.47.  TOT daily traders went 300% long on Friday’s opening and sold it on the close yesterday.

 

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17045.80 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1914.54 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.90 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.90 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 21, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model is bearish.  HOWEVER, if the SPX is closing at or below 2365, there is a good chance that the Intermediate Term Model will improve its signal on the close.

 

Expect a mixed session today, with the market opening with some modest strength, followed by weakness later in the day.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 2370 stop (which I don’t expect to be seen in the early going).  If, as expected, the SPX advances to 2376 before declining to 2370, raise the entry sell stop to SPX 2374, and for each additional 2 point advance, if it occurs, raise the stop by an equivalent 2 points.  If and when you go short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.  If the SPX is closing down on the day, cover the short on the close; otherwise carry the position overnight and into tomorrow.

 

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

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