The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, March 28, 2017

The Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, March 28, 2017

This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, March 28, 2017

The SPX declined 2.39 points yesterday to close at 2341.59.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17161.93 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1882.66 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.12 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.12 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The SPX declined yesterday for the seventh time in the past eight sessions.  All four of my index models forecast an advance today. Unfortunately, my daily model forecasts just the opposite, a decline today.  When this disparity occurs, so far, I have been unable to discern any pattern to give me a heads-up on which is more likely to be correct.  I “feel” bullish – but I don’t act on feelings.  Reluctantly, we will stand aside.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

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