Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, April 21, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, April 21, 2017

The SPX advanced 17.67 points yesterday to close at 2355.84.  TOT daily traders came into the session 300% long and took profits on the close.

For the week so far, TOT daily traders have gained 87.33 cumulative SPX points, more than erasing last week’s loss.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17175.02 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1896.91 pointsin the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.05 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.05 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The daily model is bearish today, and I look for the market to decline – although in the absence of significant negative news, I doubt it will decline by much.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 2355 stop.  If the If the SPX advances to 2360 before declining to 2355, raise your entry sell short stop to SPX 2358, and for each additional 2 point advance, if it occurs, raise the entry sell short stop by an equivalent 2 points.  Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.  If still short as we approach the close, cover the position on the close.

Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service.

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