Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, July 21, 2017 – TheTradersWire

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, July 21, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, July 21, 2017

The SPX declined 0.38 point yesterday to close at 2473.83 after being above zero for most of the session.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session and missed absolutely nothing.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17331.38 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2014.90 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.60 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.60 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 19, 2017.)  Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now.  I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.

The daily model is slightly bearish today, but I expect to see the Technology Sector buck the trend.  In the absence of news, I don’t see much to gain by going short the SPX (TOT is an SPX-based service), and we will not take an SPX position.

Misc. note:  The Wall Street Journal reported late Thursday, as follows: “Former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort is being investigated by special counsel Robert Mueller for possible money laundering as part of his investigation into Russian election-meddling, the Wall Street Journal reported late Thursday. The Journal reported both the Senate and House intelligence committees are also investigating Manafort for money laundering. Manafort worked for years as a political consultant for a pro-Russia party in Ukraine, and led Donald Trump’s presidential campaign for about three months last year. In a separate reportWednesday, the New York Times reported Manafort was as much as $17 million in debt to pro-Russia interests before joining Trump’s campaign. The Journal said the New York attorney general and Manhattan district attorney are also looking into Manafort’s real estate transactions for potential money laundering and fraud. Manafort was asked Wednesday to publicly testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee next week to discuss a June 2016 meeting he attended between top Trump advisers and a Russian lawyer who had promised them damaging information on Hillary Clinton.”  And MarketWatch reported, “President Donald Trump and his legal team are discussing his authority to grant pardons and potential ways to undermine special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into Russian election meddling, according to a Washington Post report late Thursday. The Post said Trump has asked about his power to pardon aides, family members and even himself. A president has never tried to pardon himself, and the legal implications of that could be explosive. The Post also reported Trump’s legal team is trying to keep Mueller’s probe from expanding to include the president’s finances, and are collecting potential alleged conflicts of interest they see coming from his office — which could potentially be used to remove Mueller from his position.”  Nasty stuff – unclear if the market will care.

 

About the author

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent. Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients. Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year. Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail. Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing