Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, July 10, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, July 10, 2017

The SPX advanced 15.43 points Friday to close at 2425.18, reversing 68% of Thursday’s decline.   TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

 

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17352.32 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1966.25 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.83 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.83 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 6, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.  The most likely scenario would be for the SPX to move down to the 2370 to 2400 range during the summer and then move higher towards year end.  But a lot depends upon what, if anything, the administration does or does not do regarding North Korea.  News – and the timing of news – does matter.

 

The odds favor a mixed market today with certain sectors doing considerably better than others.  As to the SPX, I expect to see strength in the morning, followed by weakness later in the day.  We will stand aside for now, but I will be looking for a good place to short later in the day.

About the author

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent. Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.