Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, July 17, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, July 14, 2017

The SPX advanced 11.44 points Friday to close at 2459.27.   TOT daily traders came into the day 200% short but then covered that position and simultaneously went 200% long and took profits on that position on the close.

 

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17343.08 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2000.34 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.67 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.67 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 6, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.  The most likely scenario would be for the SPX to move down to the 2370 to 2400 range during the summer and then move higher towards year end.  But a lot depends upon what, if anything, the administration does or does not do regarding North Korea.  News – and the timing of news – does matter.

 

The market exhausted itself with solid gains on WednesdayThursday and Friday.  The daily model is bearish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 2458 stop.  If the SPX advances to 2562 before declining to 2458, raise the entry sell stop to SPX 2460.  And for each additional 2 point advance, if it occurs, raise the entry sell stop by an equivalent 2 points.  Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.

 

About the author

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent. Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.