Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, May 1, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, May 1, 2017

Another good day for the home team as the SPX declined 4.57 points Friday to close at 2384.20.  TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 2389.80 and covered the short profitably on the close.  We also went 200% long on the close and have carried the long position over the weekend and into today.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17217.91 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1925.27 pointsin the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.94 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.94 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The daily model is bullish today.  TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% long. Go an additional 200% long at SPX 2385 stop or SPX 2381 limit, whichever comes first.  Once long, use a protective sell stop at SPX 2357 for the time being.

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