Trader’s Wire Market Update for Monday, May 8, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Friday, May 5, 2017

The SPX advanced 9.77 points Friday to close at 2399.29.   TOT daily traders went 300% long on the SPX 2392.37 opening (on anSPX 2391 stop) and have held the position over the weekend and into today.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17246.59cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1940.36 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.89 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.89 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 8, 2017.)  On March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346, I wrote, “The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.  Well, even though the SPX declined to a low of 2322 since March 24, its close of less than a point below 2400 on May 5 proves that forecast correct.  The SPX is likely to move above 2400 today.  After today, however, while the most likely direction is still northbound, expect to see the advance over the next two months be even more labored than it has been over the past two months.

On Friday, I said, “the market is likely to have its biggest gain of the week,” and it did.

TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% long.  Maintain the position.  Sell the position at SPX 2385 stop or SPX 2411 limit if either level is reached.

About the author

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent. Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients. Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year. Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail. Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing