Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, April 6, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, April 6, 2017

The SPX declined 7.21 points yesterday to close at 2352.95.  TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 2373 and took profits at SPX 2263.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17162.15 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1894.02 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 9.06 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.06 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The daily model is bearish today.  However, the expected decline is about 8-12 points, and with overnight futures trading down about 10 points as I write this, shorting into that amount of weakness seems ill-advised.  We will stand aside.

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