Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, July 27, 2017 – TheTradersWire

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, July 27, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, July 27, 2017

The SPX advanced .7 point yesterday to close at 2477.83.  TOT daily traders went 200% long at 2479.14 and have held the position overnight and into tomorrow.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17343.02 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of2018.90 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.59 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.59 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 19, 2017.)  Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now.  I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.

TOT daily traders went 200% long at 2479.14 yesterday and have held the position overnight and into today.  There is a reasonably high probability that the daily model will be bullish on Friday, as well as today, so I’m reluctant to see the position stopped out.  A 1% risk (x 2 units) would be a stop at SPX 2454.35, and that’s the stop we’ll use.  (By the way, if being stopped out at SPX 2454.35 would result in a loss of more than 2% of your account’s value, then, IMHO, you’re over-leveraging.)  If not stopped out, carry the position overnight and into tomorrow.

About the author

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent. Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients. Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year. Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail. Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing