Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, July 6, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, July 6, 2017

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17352.32 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1973.61 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.79 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.79 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 6, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.  The most likely scenario would be for the SPX to move down to the 2370 to 2400 range during the summer and then move higher towards year end.  But a lot depends upon what, if anything, the administration does or does not do regarding North Korea.  News – and the timing of news – does matter.

 

And on the subject of North Korea, one question comes to mind: Can the United States legally assassinate Kim Jong Un?  The answer is, practically speaking, no one would object.  From a legal perspective, in 1976, President Ford issued Executive Order 11905 which banned “political assassination.” President Carter reaffirmed that in 1978.  And in 1981, President Reagan, via Executive Order 12333, reiterated the assassination prohibition.  However, that did not stop Reagan from dropping bombs on Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi’s home in 1986 in retaliation for the bombing of a Berlin discotheque frequented by U.S. troops.  And in 2001, via Executive Order 13470, President Bush said the presidential directive banning assassinations would not prevent the United States from acting in self-defense.  Lawyers at the CIA have opined that the directive does not apply to wartime – and legally, the Korean War never ended with a peace treaty, only a cease fire.  Even without canceling prior Executive Orders (which the President could do in an instant, anyway) the President may defend an assassination through the principles of self-defense inherent in international law.  And since Kim Jong Un has clearly stated his goal of harming the United States, any assassination action would be easily defended as legal.  That’s my opinion – and if any reader is a constitutional law specialist and would like to disagree, I would be glad to publish a counter-opinion.

 

I expect to see the market open a little softer and then move higher.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at SPX 2434 stop.  If the SPX declines to 2428 before advancing to 2434, lower the buy stop to SPX 2430, and for each additional 2 point decline, if it occurs, lower the stop by an equivalent 2 points.  Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.

About the author

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent. Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.