Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, May 11, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, May 11, 2017

The SPX advanced 2.71 points yesterday to close at 2399.63.   TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the third session in a row.  For these three sessions in the aggregate, the SPX has gained a whopping 0.34 cumulative points.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17246.77 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1940.70points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.89 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.89to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 10, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.

As was the case yesterday, the daily model is dead neutral today.  Both bears and bulls are sleepy, and it will take some significant news to awaken one or the other.  We will snooze along with them; stand aside.  HOWEVER, if the Russell 2000 is up in the morning, then the odds are high that it will  continue that strength in the afternoon, and if so, there is a possibility that speculative interest there will spill into the overall market.  We shall see.

About the author

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent. Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.