Turov Share 0 Tweet Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, May 4, 2017 The SPX declined 3.04 points yesterday to close at 2388.13. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session. The market has been going nowhere for the past two months. On March 3, two months ago, the SPX closed at 2383.12, virtually unchanged from yesterday’s close. The Dow Industrials are down from 21005 to 20958. The Nasdaq 100 has advanced from 5373 to 5625. And the Russell 2000 is virtually unchanged from 1394 to 1391. Even mostly-unrelated gold, as measured by the ETF, GLD, is virtually unchanged from 117.51 to 117.96. A “buy and hold” investor, unless he was in the Nasdaq, might have just as well spent the past two months with Phil in Punxsutawney. Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17225.83 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1929.20 pointsin the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.93 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.93 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.) (The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands. (The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.) The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. This does not mean the bull market is without risk. It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300. Although I know this is sounding like a broken record (now that’s an expression that’s headed for extinction) the daily model is neutral today. Sans news, the market has no internal direction. Once again, will stand aside .