Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, May 4, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Thursday, May 4, 2017

The SPX declined 3.04 points yesterday to close at 2388.13.   TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

The market has been going nowhere for the past two months.  On March 3, two months ago, the SPX closed at 2383.12, virtually unchanged from yesterday’s close.  The Dow Industrials are down from 21005 to 20958.  The Nasdaq 100 has advanced from 5373 to 5625.  And the Russell 2000 is virtually unchanged from 1394 to 1391.  Even mostly-unrelated gold, as measured by the ETF, GLD, is virtually unchanged from 117.51 to 117.96.  A “buy and hold” investor, unless he was in the Nasdaq, might have just as well spent the past two months with Phil in Punxsutawney.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17225.83 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1929.20 pointsin the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.93 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.93 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk. It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

Although I know this is sounding like a broken record (now that’s an expression that’s headed for extinction) the daily model is neutral today.  Sans news, the market has no internal direction.  Once again,  will stand aside .

About the author

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent. Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients. Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year. Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail. Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing