Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, April 25, 2017

The SPX advanced 25.46 points yesterday to close at 2374.15.  All of the gain was a function of the French election.  On yesterday’s hotline, I said, “it would not surprise me if the overnight futures jump ended up being ‘it’ for the day.”  And indeed, all of the day’s gain did indeed occur on the opening.  For example, the SPX ETF, SPY, opened at 237.18 and closed at 237.17.   TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session as we chose not to guess about the outcome of the French election, but standing on the sidelines once the market gapped open cost us not a penny.

For the year, 2017 to date so far, TOT daily traders have gained 159.86 cumulative SPX points, more than the 109.86 point gain in the SPX itself.  That +1.5 outperformance ratio is far below our long-term ratio of more than +8.97 to one, but outperforming a bull market is much more difficult than outperforming a bear market, in my opinion.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17187.12 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1915.22points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.97 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.97to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The daily model shows that the odds of the market advancing versus declining are equal.  However, the Index Models show that the magnitude of a potential decline exceeds the magnitude of a potential advance.  It’s not enough of an edge to risk much capital.   We will stay on the sidelines again today, although I wouldn’t argue with anyone who wanted to take a small short position.

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