Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, August 1, 2017 – TheTradersWire

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, August 1, 2017

The SPX declined 3.32 points Friday to close at 2470.30.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17330.14 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of2011.37 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.62 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.62 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017.)  Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now.  I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this medium term bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.

While the first day of any month is usually bullish, the first day of August is generally “ho-hum”.  Overnight futures are up, and I can’t find any news that would explain it.  Best guesses: (1) momentum in the Dow Industrials, even though the vast majority of the recent gains there have been because of strength in Boeing; (2) a belief that the first day of the month “just has to be up” and (3) optimism in General Kelly’s appointment as Chief of Staff and the sense that President Trump has finally realized that he has been elected President and not Emperor, and that delegation of authority is not necessarily a bad thing.  In any event, the daily model is bearish today, with most of the day’s decline due in the afternoon.  TOT daily traders come into today’s session 400% short.  Use a protective buy stop at SPX 2485 on half the position and at SPX 2495 on the other half.

 

About the author

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent. Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients. Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year. Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail. Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing