Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, May 9, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Tuesday, May 9, 2017

The SPX advanced .09 point yesterday to close at 2399.38.   TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 2392.37 on Friday and took profits on yesterday’s close at SPX 2399.38.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17246.77cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1940.45 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.89 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.89 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 9, 2017.)  On March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346, I wrote, “The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.  Well, even though the SPX declined to a low of 2322 since March 24, its close of less than a point below 2400 on May 8 proves that forecast correct.  However, the moribund nature of the advance has caused the Intermediate Term Model to downtick to bearish.  But while the Intermediate Term Model is now bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.

The daily model is dead neutral today.  Both bears and bulls are sleepy, and it will take some significant news to awaken one or the other.  We will snooze along with them; stand aside.

About the author

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent. Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.