Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, April 26, 2017

The SPX advanced 14.46 points yesterday to close at 2388.61.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

For the year, 2017 to date so far, TOT daily traders have gained 159.86 cumulative SPX points, more than the 109.86 point gain in the SPX itself.  That +1.5 outperformance ratio is far below our long-term ratio of more than +8.91 to one, but outperforming a bull market is much more difficult than outperforming a bear market, in my opinion.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17187.12 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1929.68 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.91 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.91 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

The SPX-based daily model is neutral today, but if the SPX rallies to 2395, it becomes an attractive short for a 200% position.  If you go short at 2395, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.

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