Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, July 19, 2017

In another quiet session, after opening lower, the market clawed its way back, eventually closing with the SPX slightly higher.  As of the close, the SPX advanced 1.47 points yesterday to close at 2460.61, the high of the day.   TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 2458 on Monday and have held the position overnight twice and into today.

 

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17337.86 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2001.68 pointsin the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.66 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.66 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

 

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 6, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.  The most likely scenario would be for the SPX to move down to the 2370 to 2400 range during the summer and then move higher towards year end.  But a lot depends upon what, if anything, the administration does or does not do regarding North Korea. News – and the timing of news – does matter.

 

The daily  model is neutral today.  I expect to see somewhat of the reverse of yesterday, today, with the SPX opening higher and then slinking lower as the day progresses – but that could be changed by news. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% short.  Our stop yesterday was at SPX 2461, and I don’t want to change that.

 

About the author

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent. Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.