Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, May 17, 2017

The SPX declined 1.65 points yesterday to close at 2400.67.   TOT daily traders went 200% short on the 2404.55 opening and took profits on the close.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17271.21cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1941.74 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.89 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.89 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 10, 2017.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.  But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst,  I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it.

The news-neutral daily model is bullish for today, but the news swirling about the President is awful. TOT daily traders are advised to stand aside for the time being.  However, if – and only if – the SPX is in positive territory at 10:45 a.m., TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at the market at that time.  If the SPX is down on the day at 10:45 a.m., then continue to stand aside.  If you go long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.  If (still) long as we approach the close, sell the position on the close.  Also, since it is a certainty that the daily model will be bearish on Thursday, regardless what the market does today, go 100% short at the market on the close today and carry the position overnight and into Thursday (at which time we are likely to increase the size of the position).

 

About the author

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent. Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients. Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year. Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail. Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing