Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, May 3, 2017

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Trader’s Wire Market Update for Wednesday, May 3, 2017

The SPX advanced 2.84 points yesterday to close at 2391.17, but all of the advance was in the last few minutes (in my opinion, because of Apple expected earnings which turned out to be poor compared to expectations).   TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17225.83 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1932.24 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.91 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.91 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017 with the SPX at 2346.)  The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. This does not mean the bull market is without risk.  It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.

While all Turov Investment Group clients in accounts that permit short selling went 2x short the Dow Industrials on yesterday’s close, the SPX-based daily model is neutral today.  We will stand aside .

About the author

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent. Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.