Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Monday, September 11, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Monday, September 11, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX declined 3.67 points Friday to close at 2461.43.  TOT daily traders were long for the session and sold the position on the close.

In the September Turov on Gold, I said that 1350 was my objective on gold, and that level was reached on Friday. As a result, the gold model reversed to bearish on Friday’s close.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17482.29 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2002.50 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.73 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.73 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/hersingle term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

Intermediate Term model: (The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 5, 2017.)  On August 1, with the SPX at 2470.30, I forecast that the market would be soft over the subsequent month, and it has been, trading in a range of 2480 to 2417, and closing yesterday at 2457.  As long as the SPX closes below 2485, the Intermediate Term model must be considered bearish.

At 3:10 Friday, I recommended holding the long position over the weekend and into today, but at 3:35, I had the following to say: “Re-thinking my message from 20 minutes ago, my advice is unchanged EXCEPT that, while the daily model is expected to be bullish Monday, I really don’t want the hurricane risk exposure, and if still long as we approach the close, my recommendation is to get out of the market and into cash.  I must note that the “unbiased” approach would be to carry the position over the weekend, but candidly, I find it uncharacteristically difficult to be unbiased, considering the magnitude of the hurricane risk.  As always, readers may follow this advice or not, as they choose.”  With Irma not as furious as had been expected, and futures higher overnight as a result, I once again question the wisdom of applying any emotions to any decisions my data has made; it rarely works out well.

In any event, the news-neutral daily model is neutral, as had been expected, and I’d rather be long today than short but I don’t want to pay up too much.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at SPX 2465 limit or less.  If you go long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

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