Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Thursday, November 9, 2017

Turov and the Trader’s Wire Market Opinion for Wednesday, November 8, 2017

by Daniel Turov

The SPX advanced 3.74 points yesterday to close at 2594.38.  TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 2572.00 on Thursday of last week and took profits on yesterday’s 2594.38close.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17526.15 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of2135.45 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 8.21 to one.  (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.21 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market).  I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars.  For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.”  That belief stands, and we see it happening already.

(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 6, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains bullish.  The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs – and that can be tomorrow or three years from now.  There have been LOTS of reasons for the market to decline over recent months, but it has remained stoically resistant to declining.  I would much rather be bearish than bullish — because the market seems to be significantly overvalued — but the model disagrees (primarily as a result of continuing and historically low interest rates).

Robert Malley has written the following in The Atlantic:  “Lebanon and the region arguably have seen all this before; a leadership vacuum in the context of rising tensions is nothing new. What is new, however, is an unusually apprehensive Israel, an unusually assertive and rash Saudi leadership and, of course, an unusual U.S. president,” Malley writes. “As for Israel: For months now, it has been sounding alarm bells about Hezbollah’s and Iran’s growing footprint in Syria, and more particularly about the Lebanese movement’s soon-to-be-acquired capacity to indigenously produce precision-guided missiles — a development Israeli officials view as a potential game changer they must thwart…  Missing from this picture is any hint of diplomacy — between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Iran and the U.S., or Saudi Arabia and the Houthi; rather, the region faces a free for all in which the only operative restraint on one’s actions is nervousness over what it might provoke. That’s hardly reassuring.” The repercussions of this may become “the” catalyst described in the preceding paragraph.

The daily model is indicating that the market is likely to decline today, before a renewal of the advance on Friday. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 2594 stop or at SPX 2599 limit, whichever comes first.  Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.  Win, lose, or draw, in not stopped out previously, cover the short on the close.

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent.

Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients.

Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year.

Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here

The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail.

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About the author

Daniel Turov

In 1994, he was named “Supertrader of Wall Street” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. In 2001, he was named “Supertrader of the Millennium” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac. He’s been a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor and a member of the National Futures Association and is licensed by the State of California as a Life agent. Since 1993, he’s authored Turov on Timing, a monthly and daily publication specializing in stock market timing. Turov Investment Group Inc. (as a corporation) and Daniel Turov (as an individual) are California licensed Registered Investment Advisers. Investors from all 50 U.S. states and most foreign nations are welcomed as clients. Turov on Timing (TOT) is written by Daniel Turov. It is structured as a monthly newsletter plus a daily email service. Each day that I’m physically in the United States (on average, all but about ten business days a year), I email a daily message by midnight Pacific time to subscribers. I also send out special intraday messages when I deem them appropriate. On average, that’s a total of about 400 emails a year. Each daily email reports on my Daily Model, Intermediate Term Model, and my Long Term Perspective. For a Track Record of the Daily Model recommendations, from September 1993 through February 2017, click here The cost of the daily email service is only $397 per year (about $1 per email), and email subscribers receive, free of additional charge, the monthly newsletter. The cost of the monthly newsletter alone (i.e., without the daily message) is $95 per year if you want to receive it by email or $195 per year if you want to receive it by US Mail. Click Here To Subscribe To Turov On Timing